US Open Day 6 Preview and Tip: Extra gears give Arnaldi advantage in pick-em

• Arnaldi sustainable game

• Thompson has found his approach

• Italian looks appealing at 9/10

I have been fortunate enough to watch Matteo Arnaldi several times in the past few months. He is a member of a new generation of Italian players spearheaded by world number one Jannik Sinner and Olympic bronze medalist Lorenzo Musetti.

Arnaldi may not reach the heights that his two aforementioned compatriots are likely to achieve in coming years, but he looks certain to belong amongst the tour's top 20 players before too long.

His second round win over the dangerous Roman Safiullin was impressive, controlling his opponent from the off to collect a well deserved straight sets win.

His match against Australia's Jordan Thompson is priced as a dead heat but I see value in siding with the player with a higher potential.

Arnaldi is a pest with power

The result and performance that made me sit up and take notice of Arnaldi was his thrashing of Andrey Rublev at this season's French Open.

Arnaldi hit his opponent off the court with his firework forehand demonstrating an incredible range of attacking shots. Rublev, whose formula is to win control of the baseline before introducing his own powerful strikes, was convincingly beaten at his own game.

The Italian would then give clay court expert Stefanos Tsitsipas a scare in the next round before the Greek was able to find his game just in time to avert another upset.

It has been a year of continuous improvement for Arnaldi, who is only one of two seeded players remaining in this quarter and this time last year was ranked well outside the top 50. Although his best moments have been on clay, he has shown that he is a serious player on a hard surface too as shown by a run to the fourth round in Miami and a semi-final in Montreal this season.

Journeyman Thompson should be respected

Opponent Jordan Thompson is having a very tidy campaign. The Australian titled in Los Cabos and also made a semi-final run in Brisbane and Queens Club, before a final last month in Atlanta.

Thompson is what I consider a journeyman. He will play most weeks and give opponents a serious run for his money.

His formula is to protect his serve and grind it out from the baseline. It is a simple but effective formula that is clearly proving quite effective for him. He will often do his best to attack the net, which several players have been using to good effect this tournament in suitable conditions.

However, I view Arnaldi as a player that has a higher threshold and larger toolkit than Thompson. Arnaldi is a pest to play against. He is a master at turning defence into attack and he undoubtedly has the biggest groundstroke weapon on court in his forehand.

Trust in Arnaldi's form

There will be no secrets when these two face each other. Arnaldi said of this match-up,

"I know him well, we have trained together several times. He is very aggressive, he plays at the net and serves well, but if I play like I am doing now I can have my say. I will try to make him move as much as possible. I believe and hope that it will be a long match so I can play my cards."

Thompson is coming off the biggest win of his career at a major tournament having got the better of Hubert Hurkacz in the previous round.

However, I think oddsmakers are putting too much faith in that victory as it has been obvious that the Polish player is struggling since he injured himself at Wimbledon a couple of months ago.

The Australian was returning brilliantly in that match-up which was the key to that win. However, whilst getting the ball back into play and making the big man work was a sensible strategy against Hurkacz, Arnaldi has said himself that he fancies himself in the rallies against Thompson.

Arnaldi has yet to drop a set in this tournament and I think if he brings the level he is capable of and makes good decisions he is good value to win at 9/10.

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