Rafael Nadal's bottom half of the men's draw at the 2022 US Open play their opening matches of the tournament on Tuesday after a wild start to the tournament that saw some eye-opening results.
Taylor Fritz, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roberto Bautista Agut all fell on day one, with Fritz the biggest shock (Tsitsipas was struggling with injury) losing to world number 303 Brandon Holt.
Moving on to Tuesday and two players who are struggling at the moment and have weak records at the US Open clash on Tuesday and on recent data there's some value on Joao Sousa against Mackenzie McDonald.
We were unlucky with Sousa last week in Winston-Salem when he had three match points against eventual finalist Laslo Djere as underdog and the layers might be underrating his chances again here.
Mcdonald is in a real slump at the moment having won just one of his last five matches and the one he did win was against a tanking Nikoloz Basilashvili who was in court that day via videolink.
He hasn't won back-to-back matches since the French Open and he's also 2-7 win/loss at the US Open (including qualies).
Sousa is in similarly poor form, going two from 12 since making the Geneva final on clay at altitude and it really is feast or famine with Sousa these days.
He's actually got a better record than McDonald at the US Open (9-11 win/loss) but he hasn't won a match since beating Lucas Pouille and Pablo Carreno Busta to make the last-16 in 2018.
Stats of the last 10 main level hard court matches of each player show a small one percent lead for McDonald in terms of their service points won/return points won totals, so overall this match could be closer than the odds suggest, but conditions should favour McDonald.
Another match that I think will be more competitive than the prices indicate is the night match between Jack Sock and Diego Schwartzman.
The slower, more humid conditions might favour Schwartzman, but the cooler temperature should help Sock, whose questionable fitness puts me off backing him to win the match against the out of form Schwartzman.
The Argentine has struggled for the most part in 2022 away from the clay, going 1-3 on grass and 5-5 on hard courts at main level this year and I like the idea of Sock, who beat Schwartzman on clay at the Rome Masters back in 2017, to make a strong start.
He'll love the atmosphere late at night on Armstrong and if he gets that heavily top-spun forehand going into the Schwartzman backhand up high where Schwartzman doesn't like it he could make this interesting.
The 2.255/4 about Sock winning set one looks the bet in that match and the first leg of Tuesday's double.
Huesler and Shapovalov closely matched on the stats
There's very little between the stats for 2022 at main level of Denis Shapovalov and Marc-Andrea Huesler, with Shapo only two percent head (100 to 98) in terms of service points won/return points won totals.
The hold/break totals of the two left-handers are the same at 100 each, yet despite winning only three matches (3-10 win/loss) since beating a hobbling Rafa Nadal in Rome, Shapo is the 1.330/100 favourite.
Indeed, Shapo was very fortunate not to have an even worse recent record because he was a set and 4-1 down to Tommy Paul in Cincy when a spectator collapsed and the subsequent delay allowed the Canadian to regroup.
But there's little doubt that Shapovalov has been miles off his best this season and maybe reuniting with former coach Mikhail Youzhny as has been mooted in recent days will see him recapture some form.
Given the very serve-oriented stats of this pair a long match looks likely and the set one over 10.5 games at 2.89/5 looks the bet there.
Gojowczyk a possible underdog option against Rune
The other one that might be interesting is the match between Peter Gojowczyk and Holger Rune, with the Dane looking rather short at 1.171/6 in conditions that should favour the German, who made the last-16 as a qualifier last year.
Gojowczyk hasn't looked in the sort of form this season that he was in 12 months ago when he won six matches in New York before running out of gas and falling in a fifth set to Carlos Alcaraz.
It's still tempting to back Gojowczyk though, with Rune also in poor form at the moment and far more at home on the clay than the quickish hard courts of North America.
Rune has gone 2-10 win/loss since the quarter finals of the French Open and those two wins he did manage were against Benoit Paire and Fabio Fognini.
If Gojowczyk can summon up his best form he's well in this match in these conditions and worthy of consideration, maybe on the set handicap, but I'll go with Sock to win set one and over 10.5 games in set one of Shapovalov/Huesler at 2.809/5 for a 6.353/10 half point double.