The third round of the 2022 US Open starts on Friday at Flushing Meadows and over the years this has been a very average round as far as underdog winners are concerned, with 25% of them winning, both in the last three years and in the last 10 editions.
Indeed, in the last decade, either three, four or five betting underdogs (opening prices) of 16 have won in this round - never more and never fewer - while the average number of tie break matches in round three is 45% in the last decade.
Weather-wise on Friday we're expecting a slightly cooler day at 27C in the shade, which will be a slight relief for the players after 30-plus temperatures all week so far.
Berettini with the career series edge over Murray
I took Matteo Berrettini as a value play each-way on the outrights ahead of the tournament and I'm hopeful that the Italian can keep improving as the event goes on, so a round three against Andy Murray will be a good barometer of where he is right now.
Berrettini started well, beating Nicolas Jarry in straight sets, but he served at a healthy 64% that day, and when he dropped right down to 47% versus Hugo Grenier it was far more of a struggle for Berrettini.
Indeed, Grenier, who played really well on the day, was a point away from taking that match to a fifth set, and I suspect that Berrettini may have to go to at least four to beat Murray.
It's always tough these days to assess Murray's level, as he has a lot of ups and downs depending on how his body is holding up, but the indications this week are that he's feeling okay.
The match-up has been a good one for Berrettini, who's held serve 92% of the time against Murray, winning a healthy 79% of his first serve points against the veteran Scot, and in terms of combined service/return points won in their three clashes Berrettini is comfortably ahead.
Berrettini is on 105 in that regard, with Murray back on 95, and it's Berrettini that's created far more break point chances (0.67 per game compared to just 0.35 for Murray).
At this stage of his career, Murray can't defend as well as he once could and if Berrettini serves well he should win this, but if he drops down to around 50% on first serve he might be in a spot of bother.
I like the 2.305/4 about Berrettini to win the match and both players to win a set in this one as leg one of Friday's double.
Wu up against both Medvedev and fatigue
The second leg is to take Daniil Medvedev to ease past the challenge of Yibing Wu in 29 games or fewer at 1.834/5.
Wu lacks the weapons to do any real damage to Medvedev and given the relentless style of Medvedev I can envisage Wu struggling to win games in this match.
While Wu has been on a superb winning run lately, he's coming off the back of an intense five-set battle the previous round, and he started this season playing at ITF level.
Wu is 30-1 win/loss this season in completed matches, but only three of those wins came against top-100 opposition and one of them was versus a tanking Nikoloz Basilashvili in the first round here.
He's already played 15 sets to get to this stage of the tournament and been on court for around 11 hours in the heat, while Medvedev has been on court for just over four hours, plus Wu had never played a five set match in his career before Wednesday's win over Nuno Borges.
Throw in the nerves of facing an elite player at a major on Arthur Ashe court at night into the mix as well and I can only see one outcome here - a comfortable win for Medvedev.
We've already seen this week what Medvedev can do to players with more power than Wu, such as Arthur Rinderknech, and with the fatigue factor as well, there's a decent chance of a 6-0 or 6-1 set for the Russian here.
Elsewhere, it's quite a tricky day betting-wise for me, with Nick Kyrgios, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Corentin Moutet all feeling a bit short in price to me, but I'm struggling to find bets that I really like to oppose them with.
So, I'll take the two picks mentioned above as a 4.22 double for Friday.