It was a good opening week of the US Open, with two of the daily doubles landing, which meant a profit in the first three rounds.
If getting two decent-priced winners a day was tricky, it becomes even tougher in week two, with my task being to find a winner of 6.05/1 odds or bigger.
Historically, round four of the men's singles at the US Open has produced an average of 27% underdog winners in the last 10 editions, which is decent for a major, and 52% of the matches (but only 36% in the last three years) have featured a tie break.
Sunday's round four matches in the men's singles are set to be played on another hot day of around 30C in the shade, so conditions should remain lively.
Without doubt, the marquee match of the day is Nick Kyrgios against Daniil Medvedev, which was always a round four clash that was likely to happen once the draw was announced.
And it's been a slightly peculiar career series on outdoor hard courts (they also played one match on clay that Kyrgios won, but I'm overlooking that one) in as much as it's Medvedev that's ahead on most of the stats, but he's 2-1 behind in results.
In their three outdoor hard court matches, Medvedev has won more points on first serve, second serve, and on return, plus he's actually out-aced Kyrgios, while they've shared the four tie breaks they've contested, yet he's lost two of the three matches.
Despite winning fewer return points (27% compared to Medvedev's 29.5%) it's Kyrgios that's created the more break point chances (0.35 per game compared to 0.27 for Medvedev), which suggests he's switched on when he gets to a 15-30 or 30-30 situation on the Medvedev serve.
But the overall data implies that Medvedev has been a little unlucky to be 1-2 behind in the hard court career series, although Kyrgios fans would argue that their man wasn't fully fit when the pair clashed in Melbourne at the start of this season.
Lately, Kyrgios has decided that he's not going to beat Medvedev from the back of the court in gruelling rallies, so he's adopted a serve/volley approach and that tactic was very successful against Medvedev in Montreal a few weeks ago.
Montreal was on the slower side on a Decoturf surface in a bit of a damp week, so perhaps the quicker conditions in New York will aid that style of play, but Ashe at night won't be quick, so that counts against Kyrgios for me.
Tie breaks are highly likely here given the stats of their hard court meetings, where 44% of the sets have ended in breakers and both men have held serve around 90% of the time, but rarely am I tempted into a bet in a Kyrgios match unless there's outstanding value.
My gut feel is that Medvedev will probably edge it on fitness over the best-of-five, but I'm not having a bet in that match.
Unorthodox Moutet can make life tricky for Ruud
Last year, Botic van de Zandschulp became the first qualifier to make the quarter finals of the US Open since Gilles Muller and now the man that beat Van de Zandschulp has the chance of equalling the Dutchman's feat.
That man is Corentin Moutet and I wonder what the awkward lefty style of Moutet can do against the more powerful Casper Ruud?
The pair have never met and that will be to the Frenchman's advantage and Ruud is coming off a very tough five-setter against Tommy Paul on Friday.
Moutet loves a drop shot and he'll try to take Ruud away from his baseline comfort zone as often as he possibly can, and we'll see how the Norwegian is able to deal with the unusual style of Moutet.
Ruud has encountered problems against lefties lately, losing to Ugo Humbert on grass at Wimbledon and to rookie Ben Shelton a few weeks ago in Cincy and while those two are more about power than craft, Moutet still might be able to make this tough for Ruud.
I expect Ruud will figure it out in the end, but Moutet can make it uncomfortable, and I'll take the 2.26/5 on offer about Ruud to win and both players to win a set as leg one of a double on Sunday.
Khachanov with big statistical advantage over PCB
Underdogs have a decent chance in the other two round four matches on Sunday, too, with Karen Khachanov having won five of his last six matches against Pablo Carreno Busta, yet he's a 2.757/4 underdog.
I think we have to attack this price, with Khachanov having been so dominant against PCB on hard courts, plus the Spaniard may be a little below par physically, too.
PCB had a MTO for a hip/groin issue during his win over Alex De Minaur on Friday and he's played a lot more tennis than Khachanov this hard court summer - 29 sets compared to 23 for Khachanov.
The Russian also had a quicker time of it on Friday when Jack Draper retired near the end of their third set, but putting physical issues aside for a moment, this looks a good match-up for Khachanov.
It may be the case that the more aggressive style that PCB has used lately will be enough to turn this career series around, but I wouldn't bet on it at these odds.
Khachanov is 4-1 win/loss versus PCB on outdoor hard, holding serve 90% of the time and his combined service points won/return points won total is a huge 114
Khachanov is 4-1 win/loss versus PCB on outdoor hard, holding serve 90% of the time (PCB holds only 73% of the time versus Khachanov) and his combined service points won/return points won total is a huge 114.
PCB's is as low as 86 and he's unsurprisingly won just two of the 11 sets the pair have contested on outdoor hard.
PCB may be a man in form, but I have to oppose him at these odds, and at 2.757/4 Khachanov is the second leg of a double that pays slightly over the magical 6.05/1 mark.
Finally, my outright, Matteo Berrettini takes on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and if the Italian serves well he should win that one, but ADF won't be an easy opponent by any means and the 3-1 to the Italian is a possible angle there.