Zverev a heavy favourite over Davidovich Fokina
We had disappointment on Saturday in the men's with Marton Fucsovics easily beaten by Frances Tiafoe in straight sets, while there was a surprise for Roberto Bautista-Agut with Vasek Pospisil fighting back from 2-1 down to win in five sets.
Friday's winners are back in action this afternoon, with men's matches starting a little later, at 1730 UK time this evening. We are 'treated' with two very heavy favourites to open the schedule, with Alexander Zverev at 1.111/9 to get the better of the improving Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who after losing in qualies here last year will already be looking forward to a nice boost in his ranking following this tournament after three underdog victories.
Zverev has dropped a set in all of his three matches so far and such a prospect wouldn't be that unlikely today. He looks a little short at market prices against a competent, and improving opponent, but it would still be a major shock if the German was defeated this evening.
Djokovic dominance again shown by market pricing
Following this, Novak Djokovic is 1.041/25 to get the better of Pablo Carreno-Busta, and the world number one also looks slightly short-priced as an overwhelming favourite. This will be Djokovic's fourth consecutive match here as around a 1.051/20 favourite or shorter, which illustrates his dominance even against top 50 opposition, as he faces here, and also faced against Jan-Lennard Struff and Kyle Edmund in his previous two victories.
Coric now having played back-to-back five-setters
On Friday, I mentioned that I thought Stefanos Tsitsipas was short-priced to beat Borna Coric, and the Croatian duly defeated Tsitsipas in five sets, in an epic match which lasted in excess of four and a half hours.
Coric has now played two back-to-back five-setters, both lasting over four hours, and his opponent tonight, Jordan Thompson, has a considerable advantage in accruing less court time, and therefore accumulated fatigue.
The market looks to be overvaluing Coric after that statement victory over a top-five seed, but I'm quite happy to take Thompson as today's recommendation as a 2.588/5 underdog, considering both of the two players have similar hard court data over the last 12-18 months.
Model agrees with Goffin being favourite
Finally, David Goffin is a marginal 1.814/5 favourite to get the better of Denis Shapovalov today, and he was also a similar price when he beat the Canadian in Tokyo a year ago in two tiebreaks. I make this price not particularly out of line - I have him at 1.784/5 to get through to the quarter-finals.
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Recommended bets
Back Jordan Thompson at 2.588/5 to beat Borna Coric