More questions than answers on day one
The first round of a Grand Slam is always tricky to assess, given the often questionable condition that some players take to the courts in, but this year's US Open is even more difficult, given that many players in the draw haven't even played a main tour competitive match for six months.
A decent objective for the day would probably be to find some model value on a player who has already played in the Western & Southern Open and not had a disaster last week, but actually, even that task isn't particularly easy! The market, perhaps understandably, appears to be valuing players who have shown some level since the resumption of the tour, and that generally makes some sense.
Due to this difficulty, I want to run through some of the players my model considers some value on day one, but on the whole, I'd recommend keeping stakes pretty conservative. There are a lot of unknowns among this draw.
Kukushkin should have too much for Balazs
One player I'm keen to oppose on hard courts is Attila Balazs, with the Hungarian clay-courter having a horrific hard court record throughout his career. He's never actually played a hard court main draw match (outdoor or indoor) on the main tour but in lower levels, he's really struggled, running at just over 30% wins with poor underlying data, particularly on serve, on hard or indoor hard.
Today Balazs faces Mikhail Kukushkin, with Kukushkin the 1.392/5 favourite. Both players lost in qualies for the Western & Southern Open last week, but if Kukushkin can play anything like a half-decent level, he should have too much for Balazs here.
Blanch can test Garin
Cristian Garin has a mediocre hard court record yet is 1.402/5 against the wild card Ulises Blanch, a price which is probably influenced by his ranking - he's the 13th seed. The Chilean does his best work on clay, and could well be pushed by Blanch, who made the semi-final of the Monterrey Challenger on hard court just before lockdown.
Portero unlikely to be outclassed
Another Challenger player who looks a big price is Pedro Martinez Portero, who is 6.25/1 to get the better of Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff impressed last week here in the Western & Southern Open, and this may be influencing the market here. However, his results in the German exhibitions that he played in during June and July were uninspiring and perhaps there's a touch of recency bias at play here.
Martinez Portero did well to beat Steve Johnson in qualies here last week - a big underdog win in three sets which looked deserved based on the match stats - and he could be some value getting 7.5 games on the game handicap, which should settle at around 1.758/11 on the Exchange in the run-up to this match.
Opelka v Goffin the match of the day
In other matches, Novak Djokovic starts his campaign with a meeting with Damir Dzumhur, while John Isner's clash with Steve Johnson looking like the most serve orientated match on the card - there's around a 47% chance of a first set tiebreak in that, according to my model. Another big server, Reilly Opelka meets David Goffin in arguably the match of today's schedule. Goffin looks about right as a 1.564/7 favourite to make round two.
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Recommended bets
Back Pedro Martinez Portero +7.5 games to beat Jan-Lennard Struff at around 1.758/11