Ruud and Berrettini effectively even money the pair
There's a split schedule in New York today with the first men's quarter final starting at 1700 UK time, and then a number of hours wait until the early hours for the second. The first features Matteo Berrettini and Casper Ruud, so we'll get started with that for today's discussion.
The market is finding it tough to split the duo, making Berrettini the ever so marginal favourite at 1.991/1, so effectively it's even money the pair, similar pricing to the final in Gstaad on clay in July when Ruud won in three sets.
Ruud with slight edge on long-term data
To get to this stage, both players have rather struggled past some fairly limited opposition, with Berrettini needing four sets to beat the lucky loser Hugo Grenier, and five against the Spanish clay-courter Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in round four.
Ruud, though, has had a similar pathway to the quarter finals, also dropping a set against a lucky loser, Corentin Moutet, plus Tim Van Ritjhoven, and requiring a mammoth effort in five sets against Tommy Paul.
Considering the above, neither player has really stood out on their journey so far, with Berrettini's serve numbers better in the event so far, and Ruud having a similar edge on return. 2022 hard court numbers, though, do give Ruud the edge with his return data the main differential, so if we're going to have to go one way here, it would be on Ruud.
Kyrgios' serve likely to dictate Khachanov
The second quarter final today will be much anticipated, but sadly for European viewers, one for the night owls. Nick Kyrgios is the 1.261/4 favourite over Karen Khachanov, following his four-set victory over tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev and has further strengthened his advantage at the top of the outright market following Rafa Nadal's exit last night.
Kyrgios' route to this stage is more impressive also, with Khachanov dropping a set at least against all his previous opposition here (and two versus Pablo Carreno-Busta in round four) although both players have won in excess of 70% of service points so far in the event making it likely that this match will be rather serve-oriented with small margins and key points dictating matters.
As the better server (winning almost 5% more service points on hard court this season), the match should be on Kyrgios' racquet, but I do feel that it will need a Kyrgios implosion for Khachanov to have a solid chance here. Can he take a set? Absolutely. But I'd be surprised if he caused a big shock tonight.