ATP US Open Quarter-Final Tips: Rublev with edge over Tiafoe

Kyrgios dumped out in decider

In almost four hours, Nick Kyrgios was stunned in a deciding set by Karen Khachanov to turn the outright market upside down. For a player usually so clutch on the key points, Kyrgios was 2/9 on his break point chances and was broken 4/8 times he faced break point on serve.

I've said it so many times over the years, but these numbers clearly illustrate my point again - so many sports matches at the highest level are decided on these fine margins.

That was less the case in the first quarter-final though, with our pick Casper Ruud easing past Matteo Berrettini in straight sets to set up a semi-final with Khachanov later in the week. The Norwegian is now second favourite for the title at 4.3100/30, with Carlos Alcaraz replacing Kyrgios at the top of the outright market at a current 3.02/1.

Rublev looking like value as slight favourite

Today's action in New York sees the remaining two quarter-finals take place, with the first scheduled at not before 1830 UK time - Andrey Rublev versus Frances Tiafoe - with Rublev the marginal 1.9210/11 market favourite.

This is something of a departure from the market pricing in their previous meeting which took place on hard court at Indian Wells in March this year, when Rublev was priced just shy of the 1.51/2 mark and eased to a straight set victory.

The seasons of the two players have changed direction slightly since then, with Rublev dropping out of the top 10 and Tiafoe improving and showing some better results in Grand Slam events of late, with a run to the fourth round at Wimbledon as well.

However, hard court data this year makes Rublev still a solid favourite. He's won a higher percentage of service and return points, and his straightforward win over Cameron Norrie last time out will be a big boost.

Will Tiafoe's win over Nadal be his cup final? These sort of questions have to be answered, but I'm leaning towards Rublev at market prices.

Alcaraz and Sinner match likely to take twists and turns

In the remaining quarter final, played overnight for European viewers, tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz is 1.584/7 to get past Jannik Sinner, who needed five sets for the second time in this tournament to win against Ilya Ivashka on Monday night.

Alcaraz had breezed into round four without dropping a set, but also required five against Marin Cilic, but still has the edge in terms of lower time spent on court.

Hard court data this year gives Alcaraz the edge, so I don't think there's much to see in terms of anything out of line from a pre-match perspective. However, there could well be some twists and turns as the match plays out, with both players winning 40%+ return points on the surface this season, enabling them to put consistent pressure on opposition serves - this should be a fascinating match between two hugely talented young players.