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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">ATP US Open Day 6: Schwartzman potential underdog value against Tiafoe</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2022-09-03">03 September 2022</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "ATP US Open Day 6: Schwartzman potential underdog value against Tiafoe", "name": "ATP US Open Day 6: Schwartzman potential underdog value against Tiafoe", "description": "Third round action in the men's singles at the US Open continues on Saturday, with eight further matches on today's card. Returning to run through them is D...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/us-open/atp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/us-open/atp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html", "datePublished": "2022-09-03T14:26:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2022-09-03T14:43:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Third round action in the men's singles at the US Open continues on Saturday, with eight further matches on today's card. Returning to run through them is Dan Weston... Gasquet needing to roll back the years to defeat Nadal September 15th, 2003, was the first time Richard Gasquet faced Rafa Nadal, and the only time in a ranking tournament that he has recorded a victory. Since then, Nadal has reeled off 17 victories in a row against the veteran Frenchman, although they've met just once in the last four years. Nadal being priced up at [1.07] for tonight's match between the duo really isn't much of a shock. That's the only meeting today which has a hugely strong pre-match favourite, so there should be some decent competitive action today in New York with players bidding to join last night's winners in round four. Cilic a little short versus Evans There's British interest in the form of Cameron Norrie, who is a solid favourite to get past the Dane, Holger Rune, while Dan Evans is underdog at [2.56] for his clash with Marin Cilic. Both players haven't had much difficulty in getting to this stage right now, and it's rather a clash of styles between Cilic's stronger serve and Evans' better return game. I make Cilic the favourite, but the market price looks a little on the short side in my view. Priced around the [1.5] to [1.6] mark are both Ilya Ivaskha, against Lorenzo Musetti, and Andrey Rublev against Denis Shapovalov. Based on hard court data, both prices look broadly correct, although I did think Rublev would be priced at a higher mark than this line against Shapovalov (because I thought he'd be undervalued by the market after an inconsistent few months). However, as is often the case, the Exchange is pretty accurate in pricing up meetings between two players with pretty exposed ability levels. Schwartzman can succeed where Kubler failed Despite that, the one spot I don't mind is Diego Schwartzman priced up as a pretty heavy underdog at [3.0] for his clash with Frances Tiafoe. This is a similar line to Jason Kubler against Tiafoe on Thursday, which I also thought was some value, but Tiafoe won a very tight three-setter. In that match, Kubler still won 47% of points - very high for a 0-3 defeat - and it could have been a different story if the Australian didn't go 2/10 on break points as well. This, interestingly, was a very similar dynamic to Schwartzman's win over Alexei Popyrin in round two as well. As is usually the case with Schwartzman's matches, the playing style of the duo are rather different. Schwartzman's weak serve but ultra-strong return game matches up against the stronger serve but weaker return of the opposition, and combining the two, there's not much to be said for Tiafoe being anything shorter than [1.8]. He's much shorter than this today, so Schwartzman is today's pick.", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/schwartzman 1280.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Argentinian Tennis Player Diego Schwartzman"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Diego Schwartzman can surprise Frances Tiafoe...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/d-schwartzman-v-tiafoe-betting-31710725" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/d-schwartzman-v-tiafoe-betting-31710725">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=ATP%20US%20Open%20Day%206%3A%20Schwartzman%20potential%20underdog%20value%20against%20Tiafoe&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fatp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fatp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fatp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fatp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fus-open%2Fatp-us-open-day-6-schwartzman-potential-underdog-value-against-tiafoe-030922-778.html&text=ATP%20US%20Open%20Day%206%3A%20Schwartzman%20potential%20underdog%20value%20against%20Tiafoe" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>Third round action in the men's singles at the US Open continues on Saturday, with eight further matches on today's card. Returning to run through them is Dan Weston...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p>"Schwartzman’s weak serve but ultra-strong return game matches up against the stronger serve but weaker return of the opposition, and combining the two, there’s not much to be said for Tiafoe being anything shorter than <b class="inline_odds" title="4/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.80</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/5</span></b>."</p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p><strong><h2>Gasquet needing to roll back the years to defeat Nadal</h2></strong><p><br> September 15th, 2003, was the first time Richard Gasquet faced Rafa Nadal, and the only time in a ranking tournament that he has recorded a victory. Since then, Nadal has reeled off <strong>17 victories in a row</strong> against the veteran Frenchman, although they've met just once in the last four years.</p><p>Nadal being priced up at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/gasquet-v-nadal-betting-31710831"><b class="inline_odds" title="1/14"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.07</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/14</span></b></a> for tonight's match between the duo really isn't much of a shock.</p><p>That's the only meeting today which has a hugely strong pre-match favourite, so there should be <strong>some decent competitive action</strong> today in New York with players bidding to join last night's winners in round four. </p><p><strong><h2>Cilic a little short versus Evans</h2></strong></p><p>There's British interest in the form of Cameron Norrie, who is a solid favourite to get past the Dane, Holger Rune, while Dan Evans is underdog at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/cilic-v-evans-betting-31709820"><b class="inline_odds" title="8/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.56</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/5</span></b></a> for his clash with Marin Cilic.</p><p>Both players haven't had much difficulty in getting to this stage right now, and it's rather a <strong>clash of styles</strong> between Cilic's stronger serve and Evans' better return game. I make Cilic the favourite, but the market price looks a little on the short side in my view.</p><p>Priced around the <b class="inline_odds" title="1/2"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.5</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/2</span></b> to <b class="inline_odds" title="8/13"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.6</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/13</span></b> mark are both <strong>Ilya Ivaskha</strong>, against Lorenzo Musetti, and <strong>Andrey Rublev</strong> against Denis Shapovalov.</p><p>Based on hard court data, both prices look broadly correct, although I did think Rublev would be priced at a higher mark than this line against Shapovalov (because I thought he'd be undervalued by the market after an inconsistent few months). However, as is often the case, the Exchange is<strong> pretty accurate </strong>in pricing up meetings between two players with pretty exposed ability levels.</p><p><strong><h2>Schwartzman can succeed where Kubler failed</h2></strong></p><p>Despite that, the one spot I don't mind is Diego Schwartzman priced up as a <strong>pretty heavy underdog</strong> at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/d-schwartzman-v-tiafoe-betting-31710725"><b class="inline_odds" title="2/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/1</span></b></a> for his clash with Frances Tiafoe.</p><blockquote>This is a similar line to Jason Kubler against Tiafoe on Thursday, which I also thought was some value, but Tiafoe won a very tight three-setter.</blockquote><p>In that match, Kubler still won 47% of points - very high for a 0-3 defeat - and it could have been a <strong>different story</strong> if the Australian didn't go 2/10 on break points as well. This, interestingly, was a very similar dynamic to Schwartzman's win over Alexei Popyrin in round two as well.</p><p>As is usually the case with Schwartzman's matches, the playing style of the duo are rather different.</p><p>Schwartzman's weak serve but <strong>ultra-strong return game</strong> matches up against the stronger serve but weaker return of the opposition, and combining the two, there's not much to be said for Tiafoe being anything shorter than <b class="inline_odds" title="4/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.8</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/5</span></b>. He's much shorter than this today, so Schwartzman is today's pick.</p></p> </div> </div> <div class="recommended_bets betslip_goto auto_banners" data-banner_cta="Join"> <h3>Recommended bets</h3> <div class="editor editor--reversed"> <p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/us-open-2022/d-schwartzman-v-tiafoe-betting-31710725">Back Diego Schwartzman at <b class="inline_odds" title="2/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/1</span></b></a></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description"></div> 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