Tennis Tips

WTA Finals Riyadh Final Preview and Tip: Gauff v Zheng can go the distance at 5/4

Krejcikova towel
Down and out: Krejcikova shows what it has been like to play both Gauff and Zheng this week

A championship match featuring the youngest finalists since 2004 has been set at the WTA Finals and tennis tipster Gavin Mair expects it will be closely fought...

  • Unstoppable force versus immovable object

  • Trade Zheng v Gauff on the Betfair Exchange

  • Three set shoot-out holds value at 5/42.25


Not since 2004 when Maria Sharapova faced off against Serena Williams in the Championship match at the WTA Tour Finals has there been a final pairing as young as Qinwen Zheng and Coco Gauff, with a combined age of 42 years and 271 days.

The future of women's tennis is in strong hands, as Zheng and Gauff have been the star performers at this week's event and it would not be surprising if this encounter is the first of many important finals this duo competes over the next few years.

It is a difficult match to call, with both going about their business in different ways. Zheng has been unplayable in an attacking sense, while Gauff has been a nightmare to hit through.

It is the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.

Zheng on the attack

From the outset conditions in Riyadh have been slick. The tournament is played at 600m altitude on a fast indoor court.

For Zheng the solution has been to play on the front foot. Her first match with Aryna Sabalenka proved a wake-up call in how she should approach her tennis this week. Zheng was not assertive enough in that match, registering only 11 winners and a risk averse 18 unforced errors.

Sabalenka has been a horrible match-up for Zheng this year so it was no surprise that the outcome was a victory for the Belarusian. Both Zheng and Sabalenka want to be the aggressor, building points on their terms as they probe for a ball they can strike for a winner. Of the two players it is Zheng that mastered the aggressive style of play in Riyadh.

Considering Zheng's approach her ratio of winners to unforced errors has been healthy in her last two matches and it indicates she has got a handle on how to play this court.

Gauff reading opponents like a book

Gauff on the other hand has been able to implement her athletic baseline game to good effect despite the quickness of the court. In her semi-final encounter against Sabalenka, Gauff frustrated the life out of Sabalenka as the tournament favourite could not hit through Gauff with enough regularity.

A telling statistic in that encounter was that Gauff was dominant in the rallies, winning all but one of the rallies that went over nine shots.

Gauff is very familiar with Sabalenka's game style and her patterns. They have met nine times and the American now leads the head to head by five wins to four. It was clear that she was often anticipating Sabalenka's next move, which visibly whittled down the confidence of her opponent.

Likewise in her win over Iga Swiatek, Gauff was a step ahead of her opponent. Swiatek had dominated Gauff by winning 11 of their 12 career matches before Gauff scored a rare win this week.

Beating both Swiatek and Sabalenka at the same tournament is a rarity, with Elena Rybakina the last player to do that at Indian Wells in 2023. It is understandable that Gauff is favourite for this contest, with oddsmakers pricing her at 8/131.61.

I am however unconvinced by the strength of her favouritism implied by that price.

New match up that can go the distance

Zheng and Gauff have only met once on tour. That was in Rome this year prior to Zheng's strong improvement as a player.

In that encounter the Chinese player was horrendous on serve landing only 41% of her first balls into court. In recent months, Zheng's serving precision more than any other improved facet of her game has been the key to her up-turn in form.

It would also be fair to suggest that Gauff is also an improved player since that Rome meeting. Her strength in match-ups this week has been her ability to think a couple of moves ahead of her opponent like an on-court chessmaster. However, she will be less familiar with Zheng's patterns given this is only their second match.

Both players have shown the ability to go off the rails. Zheng has a habit of losing focus. This week she was taken to three sets by Rybakina, and in her semi-final against Barbora Krejcikova her form disappeared for 30 minutes once she had built a set and double break lead.

Gauff has also had scrappy spells in her matches, and was a little bit fortunate to avoid a third set in both her matches against Swiatek and Sabalenka.

This is a tough match on paper to decide. They are approaching their tennis from different perspectives and I anticipate that both will have their moments in this contest. Zheng will be able to hit through Gauff for a spell, whilst the American will find a way to tempt the errors out of Zheng.

I think there is value on this going three sets and over 2.5 total sets is priced at 5/42.25.

It looks a good match to trade in play on the Exchange and hopefully goes the distance. May the best player win.



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