WTA Finals Preview and Tip: Under the radar Krejcikova is value to have hot start at 15/8

• All to play for in Orange Group

• Gauff already through

• 15/8 first set would keep Krejcikova alive

The Orange group at the WTA finals is still wide open. The only thing that is certain is that Coco Gauff will contest the semifinal.

However, she still needs to win a set to put her out of sight of her group opponents. The stakes are high as the player qualifying from the Orange Group in second place will experience the unwelcome task of challenging tournament favourite Aryna Sabalenka, who topped the Purple Group.

Gauff has a high probability of winning the group having secured two straight sets victories so far. The only permutation that will push her down to second place is a straight sets defeat to Barbora Krejcikova.

Iga Swiatek is heavily favoured to defeat Daria Kasatkina, who has replaced the injured Jessica Pegiula from the competition. Swiatek's path to the semi-finals is secured should she defeat Kasatkina and Gauff wins against Krejcikova.

For Czech player Krejcikova, it is likely that she can only make the final four by winning in two sets against Gauff, which would become her only route to progression should Swiatek defeat Kasatkina - a player she has not conceded more than three games against in any set of their past five meetings.

Who knew tennis could be so complicated?

Gauff's perfect start

Coco Gauff has been the sensation of the tournament so far. Although she was odds on to qualify from the group before a ball was struck, she landed a tricky draw against two players that have historically bullied her on court.

Gauff was impressive in finding a solution to defeat Jess Pegula, who had smacked her off the court in previous match-ups, while Swiatek possessed a commanding eleven wins, one loss head to head record before their match on Tuesday.

The American has two straight sets wins on her record having adapted her game to the quick conditions better than her opponents.

I was surprised by how she frustrated Pegula in the first match.

Everything Pegula threw at Gauff was defended and counter-punched with interest. Pegula ran out of ideas. It has be said however, Pegula has since withdrawn from the tournament with a left knee injury that she declared had flared up before the event kicked-off. It is bad break for the veteran as conditions are ideal for her.

Against Swiatek, Gauff's victory was more noteworthy for how she overcame the mental hurdle of bettering an opponent that typically expects to beat her without breaking a sweat. All but one of her matches against Swiatek had ended in a straight sets defeat.

Swiatek showed an inability to modify her game for the slick courts, whilst Gauff was secure in her surroundings and found a way to tilt the match-up in her favour. It remains to be seen if Gauff can repeat this result in future matches against Swiatek in more neutral and slower conditions.

Krejcikova finding rhythm

Expectations were low for Barbora Krejcikova heading into Riyadh. The Czech entered the event as an injury doubt, and had struggled to string two good matches together for most of the season.

There is no doubting her pedigree though and her ability to surprise. After all she won Wimbledon in similar circumstances having arrived in London without any form.

She is like a diesel tanker, very difficult to stop once she builds momentum.

In her tournament opener against Swiatek, Krejcikova led by a set and double break before she ran out of steam and Swiatek's all out attack game approach was rewarded. On another day Swiatek would not have got out of jail.

The Czech followed up the Swiatek defeat with a strong showing against Pegula, frustrating the American in a similar style to Gauff.

There are few players that have Krejcikova's playing style. She has a complete toolkit and can mix it up her game with both power and variety. She adapts well to quicker conditions, and before her Wimbledon success the two-time Grand Slam champion enjoyed regular success in indoor conditions.

Despite Gauff's hot start, Krejcikova offers an entirely different match-up than both Pegula and Swiatek.

These two players are at their most comfortable taking risks and playing on the front foot. Krejcikova's variety allows her to consider each point differently and consider the appropriate shot for the situation. That represents a different challenge for Gauff.

Fast conditions have meant that unforced errors have been a telling statistic through matches in Riyadh so far. Krejcikova showed a better balance between her mistakes and winners than Gauff so far.

Whilst Gauff's differential between winners and unforced errors was a substantial -23 against Swiatek, Krejcikova's was -17 despite playing an extra set - meaning you would expect a higher total.

Against Pegula, Krejcikova's differential was -10 and Gauff landed -14.

I feel Krejcikova is going under the radar due to low pre-tournament expectations and a misinterpretation that she is under-cooked. Krejcikova said of her performance against Pegula that she had to play her best tennis to win, and she did that.

Value on Krejcikova

Gauff may find it more difficult to drag errors out of Krejcikova than she did out of Pegula and Swiatek. Krejcikova is not going to fall into the trap of being unnecessarily aggressive as this is not her default approach on the court.

Krejcikova has won their only career meeting to date and that is more evidence to the potential of this being a complicated match up for Gauff.

The Czech will be clear on what her task at hand is - she must win this match. Gauff can afford to have an off-day, which potentially creates an unclear psychology of how she should approach this contest.

Krejcikova will be determined on finding a fast start. The first set means everything for her chances of reaching the semi-final.

The complicated dynamics of this group stage format means there is value on a specific outcome, and that is Krejcikova to take the first set.

Regardless of that situation this is not an impossible match for an under-rated Krejcikova to win.

All signs point to value on backing Krejcikova to win the first set at 15/82.88.

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