WTA Finals Preview and Tip: Back Zheng to edge past Paolini at 11/4

• Perfect Sabalenka on course for big pay day

• All to play for in Zheng vs Paolini

• Three set win for rollercoaster Zheng is tasty 11/4

Aryna Sabalenka has coasted through the Purple Group at the WTA Finals, winning every set played so far to secure an unsurmountable lead atop the table and with it the year end world number one ranking.

The Belarusian has been the best player on the faster courts all year and is on course for a first year end championships victory.

Sabalenka does not have qualification on the line in her dead rubber with Elena Rybakina, but with each round-robin win granting 200 ranking points and $350,000 it is unlikely she will take the match for granted.

It is a match Sabalenka should win on current form, especially with Rybakina clearly affected by the lack of match play over recent months. There is an extra incentive for Sabalenka not to down tools as an undefeated champion would bag a total prize of $5,155,000. Not a bad way to end the year.

Zheng vs Paolini shoot-out

In the other group stage fixture on Wednesday, Qinwen Zheng starts as favourite in her match with Jasmine Paolini.

The winner will join Sabalenka in the semi-final as the Purple Group runner-up.

The Chinese player has won all three of their meetings to date but Paolini has always made her work for the victory. I don't see why this match, with so much on the line, will be any different.

Zheng blowing hot and cold

Zheng was a dominant winner over Elena Rybakina in her second match, yet her form was inconsistent from start to finish and she found herself in a rather unnecessary third set.

She led by a set and a break but she lost her concentration, allowing her level to dip for a prolonged spell enabling the decider. To her credit Zheng was supreme once she woke up from her dip showing all the exciting facets of her game to win with plenty of room to spare.

I think she will prove too hot to handle for Paolini here but her recent record shows her form lasts in bursts rather as a sustained level through the course of a match.

She has only lost to Sabalenka and the phenomenally talented Karolina Muchova since the US Open but 10 of her matches have gone to three sets including against Paolini.

The Italian is a warrior that doesn't mind causing an upset. She is a plucky player that is lacking the weaponry and physicality of the elite players but she is always competitive. Nine of her past 14 defeats have been in three sets with the players notching straight sets wins including the likes of Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and the wonderkid Mirra Andreeva.

It takes an elite player to get a clean kill against Paolini.

Although Zheng is getting there the 22-year old still has to accumulate more miles on the clock and develop further experience at the business end of major events. That top player aura will arrive soon, but she isn't quite there yet.

Paolini recognises she is up against it here but she will try her best. Of her match with Zheng she previewed, She's a player I've honestly never won against. I played against her a few weeks ago and to tell the truth I hope to go on court with a bit clearer ideas. In Wuhan, especially at the beginning of the first set, I had difficulty. I'll try not to make the same mistakes. It's always very difficult to compete on such a fast court."

As for Zheng she spoke of her drop in concentration against Rybakina but declared it positive that she was able to recover her focus for the final set and play her best tennis.

I expect Zheng will prove too strong for Paolini but she is prone to dips in her level, while Paolini is renowned for her fight.

The smart money is on a Qinwen Zheng win in three sets. Back Qinwen Zheng to win 2-1 (set betting) at 11/43.75

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