WTA Finals Outright Preview and Tip: Back Pegula to have a run at 10/3

• Huge prize purse up for grabs at controversial Saudi finals

• Back Sabalenka to win group at 8/111.73

• Pegula value for a run at 10/34.33

This week the WTA tour's season ending event will be played in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It has been a controversial decision to showcase an event featuring some of the highest profile global women athletes in a kingdom where the rights for women living there are restricted.

Yet, money talks and there is serious business on the court with a prize purse of $15.25 million up for grabs, and the champion set to pocket at least $4.45 million.

Much of the attention in the build-up to the tournament has been on the off-court situation, with players routinely and skillfully combatting questions about their acceptance of this event.

Regardless, on the court it will be a fascinating week and its outcome will not only determine the tour champion but who will end the year as the world's number one ranked player.

Aryna Sabalenka leads the charge, more than 1000 ranking points ahead of Iga Swiatek, and with conditions reportedly on the fast side the Belarusian should be confident of her chances of ending an impressive campaign with a bang.

To end the year on top of the world, Sabalenka needs to win only three matches.

Favourable group for Sabalenka

Sabalenka has been a step ahead of her competition on a hard court all year, winning both hard court Grand Slams and WTA 1000 events in Cincinnati and Wuhan.

The videos circulating of practice sessions in Riyadh have shown that the playing surface is very fast and this favours the biggest hitters and Sabalenka is unmatched in that regard.

Groups feature four players separated by a balanced division of rankings, and Sabalenka should feel comfortable placed atop a draw with match-ups that she typically has a good handle on.

Jasmine Paolini is the second highest seed in the group, thanks to her extraordinary final runs at both the French Open and Wimbledon. Sabalenka won their only match this season and leads their head to head 2/1.

Although Paolini has a win against Sabalenka on her record, that was achieved at Indian Wells last year in conditions that the Belarusian typically finds challenging.

It would be fair to say that despite making two Grand Slam finals this season and being the fourth seed, Paolini is viewed as the underdog this week. At the start of the year nobody would have anticipated that the diminutive Italian would be as competitive as she has been.

Despite her battling tendencies there is serious danger that she will be overwhelmed by the pace of conditions and a group that pairs her opposite a land of giants.

Six-foot Elena Rybakina is a case in point and is the 5th seed in the draw.

The Kazakhstani's presence in Riyadh is a testament to her talent as she has missed huge chunks of this season due to one health setback or another, while there has been uncertainty off the court following the separation from her long term coach before the US Open.

It is unclear what to expect from Rybakina as she should in theory relish these conditions - and from the practice footage has indeed been impressive - yet she has not played a competitive match since withdrawing from the second round of New York back in August.

Given her lack of game time I think it is best to tread with caution when considering Rybakina's chances. On a side note it will be fascinating to see how she gets on in the new season following her announcement this week that Goran Ivanisevic will team up with her ahead of the 2025 campaign.

With doubts over Rybakina and conditions unfavourable to Paolini that should open the door for 7th seed Qinwen Zheng.

The Chinese player has elevated her game in recent months, winning Olympic gold before a strong end to the season on the hard courts where she registered a quarter-final or better in each tournament since the US Open.

She is beginning to look the part as a top tier talent and has significantly closed the gap on the leading players that had existed at the start of the campaign. However, a gap still exists, with Qinwen yet to find a way to defeat Sabalenka.

Although Sabalenka is odds on to win this group it still feels like value given the opposition and the fact that wins over each will secure her the season end world number one position.

Back Aryna Sabalenka to win the Purple Group at 8/111.73.

Pegula likes it fast

The Orange Group is headlined by Swiatek, and it will be interesting to follow her performances here as she begins work under the tutelage of new coach Wim Fissette and as she attempts to regain her position as the sport's leading player with Sabalenka looking likely to stop the Pole from a third consecutive season as the year end number one.

Analytics have shown that Swiatek remains the best player in the world in slow to medium conditions where she has time to dictate the rallies. It is however, on the faster tracks where she is finding difficulties.

Swiatek's achilles heel is that she can be rushed by attacking players on a slick surface. Had she picked the playing surface for this week's tournament, she would not be selecting a blisteringly quick indoor arena.

Fortunately she has avoided the likes of Sabalenka and Rybakina who know the buttons to press against Swiatek in these conditions.

The tournament's third seed Coco Gauff is viewed as Swiatek's main opposition in this group, yet the Polish star dominates their head to head by a mountainous 11 wins to one.

Gauff has the same signature weakness as Swiatek in that she her game is far less functional when she is rushed. However, following the US Open she has paired up with a new coach in an attempt to rectify the technical flaws of her game on her oft wayward service action and trigger happy forehand.

Early signs were promising that Gauff might be on the up as she had confident runs in both Beijing and Wuhan, even though the tennis she produced remained rather scrappy. I am a believer in her potential but for now I categorise her in the 'wait and see' section.

Jessica Pegula on the other hand is a player I trust has maximum clarity in her game. The 30-year old struggled in the Asian swing but did achieve her best career result recently by reaching the US Open final.

Pegula is a master at redirecting pace generated by her opponents and she has had her best results in faster conditions. She has even enjoyed success against both Swiatek and Gauff in such an environment.

Last season Pegula made it to the final of the year end championships, and given her draw she should be looking to make the latter rounds this year too.

The final entrant in this group is Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova. Although the Czech accumulated only the 12th highest points total for this season she qualifies by virtue of her Grand Slam success.

Outside of that great run at SW19 Krejcikova's season has been a struggle and expectations are low for her this week.

It is disappointing that she enters this event as an injury doubt, with a recent hip injury curtailing her presence at recent tournaments. Krejcikova was a late arrival in Riyadh suggesting a hesitancy in her participation this week.

Had it not been for the injury Krejcikova would be a potential contender given her ability on indoor courts and how she has previously matched up against Swiatek in such conditions.

However, there are too many doubts to back her this week and it wouldn't surprise me if she does not complete the tournament with a couple of alternative players such as Daria Kasatkina and Danielle Collins primed to enter the field as a replacement to pocket a large pay day should a player withdraw.

More conservative bettors should consider the 10/111.91 on Pegula to make the semi-finals but I see the value on Pegula to win this section and I think the 10/34.33 available on her to top the group is tempting.

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