When Roger Federer announced his retirement, it marked the end of an illustrious tennis career.
Many fans would have welcomed the chance to see Federer play again, but retirement in sport is inevitable and it creates opportunities for the clever punter.
Prophecy and profit
Many years ago, I was asked during a TV Tennis betting slot: "Will Andy Murray ever win Wimbledon?"
I replied that his best chance would come in 2012 or 2013.
When Murray won his first grand slam title, the US Open, in 2012 and Wimbledon in 2013, I was immediately invited back onto the show!
Understanding a player's career
Successful betting or Betfair trading is about being ahead of the market.
If you can bet or trade at odds that don't reflect the true chances of something happening, you will make money. In many sports, working out where a player is in their career is a great way of getting ahead of the odds.
Tennis players tend to start their professional career at 17 or 18. From that point they rise to physical maturity around their mid-twenties.
By the time they're in their early 30s they are thinking about retiring and they typically ease into retirement in their mid-30s.
There will always be exceptions to the rule, but that's that was how I was able to predict Murray's first chance of winning a major title. I just looked at his age and likely career progression.
Get ahead of the curve
From bettors it is advantageous to know where a player is in their career.
When you are looking at a player who's rising rapidly through the ranks, you will know that they are some way off their full ability, and the market tends to be a little behind on those players.
When you get players at the top of their career, then they are about to start going into the declining phase. You can start to bet against those players, as that is when the first upsets start to happen.
Time catches up with everyone, even phenomenons like Federer. It's fundamentally impossible for a player to avoid the ageing curve. By anticipating it, you can take advantage of the pattern.
How the opportunity changes over time
In tennis the rise to the top tends to be rapid, so you find that starlets, such as recent US Open champion men's singles Carlos Alcaraz, will show their ability in the challenger tours. At which point they will move to the main tours.
The 'shock of the new' ensures progress is rapid, but as you now know, Alcaraz is still well below his maximum physical ability.
Once players mature and reach their peak, the curve downwards tends to be less rapid. This is because players can now match their physical prowess with experience and that will help them manage matches better.
The problem with historical data? It's in the past
Many people use historical data to try and figure out where they should place a bet or trade.
The problem with historical data is that it only tells you what has happened, not will happen. Consequently, the market is quite often biased to recent results.
Looking at the age of a player and their age curve, will help you spot players who are yet to reach to their peak. It can also help you see who is likely to starting show vulnerabilities as their psychical prowess declines.
Betting or trading on this basis, by predicting the future path of a player, will give you an advantage over those who focus merely on past results.
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