Sunday Tennis Previews and Tips: Zverev to triumph in Paris and value on Pegula in Riyadh

• Final in Paris and pivotal WTA Finals group match previewed

• Zverev's dominance against left-handers

• Conditions favour Pegula over Gauff

As a consequence of his strong week in Paris, Alexander Zverev will return next week to his career high ranking of world number two.

The German will be looking to mark his ascension by winning the title match against Ugo Humbert in Paris and is priced favourably by the market to do so.

Meanwhile at the WTA Finals in Riyadh a match that will likely prove key to determining who will progress beyond the group stage will take place between Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.

Zverev, a class apart in Paris

Alexander Zverev is finishing the 2024 season with a flourish. The German was competitive through the first six months of the campaign, reaching the second Grand Slam final of his career at Roland Garros and winning an important clay title in Rome.

However, he looked low on energy supplies and struggled with a bout of pneumonia over recent months and his form suffered as a result.

Arriving in Paris this week, expectations were low for Zverev. But, he has looked the class player in the field, boxing his opponents at arms length and enjoying a mostly stress free passage to the final.

Zverev's draw on paper was not simple featuring opponents such as Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune that have all tasted victory over the German. Yet, he dropped only one set across those contests.

Zverev has been in strong serving form, while his reliable backhand has been ticking over nicely and the forehand that can regularly be his achilles heel has been more help than hindrance.

Opponent Ugo Humbert is a dangerous commodity and is another player that has a victory over Zverev on his record. Furthermore, when the pair met here last season Zverev was only a narrow victor, escaping with the win in a 3rd set tiebreak.

Humbert has relished conditions this week with the speed of the indoor hard court the perfect complement to his flat hitting, attacking game.

Humbert firing up the crowd

The Frenchman has also made the most of the Parisian crowd support, firing them up not only with his exciting brand of tennis but also with exaggerated celebrations on key points. It raised the temperature to assist him past Carlos Alcaraz and then Karen Khachanov in yesterday's semi-final.

Khachanov was furious at Humbert's gamesmanship and confronted him about his behaviour at the usually gentlemanly post-match handshake. Khachanov said in the post-match interview that he is already looking forward to their next meeting.

It will be interesting to see how Zverev will handle such a negative crowd response. He spoke earlier in the week that he noticed how loud it was in his match against Fils, and he was taken to three sets in that one.

After beating Humbert here last year he said, "Not only did I have to beat Ugo today, but I also had to beat 15000 other people in the stands as well. But I love it. It was a great atmosphere."

Although Zverev said he enjoyed that crowd attention I am unconvinced by his positive spin and it would not surprise me if the boisterous attendees get under his skin at some point.

I still think however that Zverev should have too much for Humbert. He has an exceptional record against left-handed players, winning his last 27 matches(!), and last tasting defeat at the 2022 Australian Open.

Humbert is in exclusive company as one of only three lefties to have a win against Zverev over the past three years. The others are Rafa Nadal and a peak performing Denis Shapovalov.

For all his ranking success, Zverev is not a serial winner on tour whereas Humbert has yet to lose a final.

Of course that is evidence that Zverev can be beaten by Humbert but in current form I still think its hard to see past the German.

A bet I like for this match is one that factors in Humbert's ability to cause Zverev trouble despite the match-up advantage and solid form of the higher seeded player.

I like Zverev to win and both players to win a set at 12/53.40

Pegula should like conditions

If Jessica Pegula were to pick her ideal court it would have three key elements: a hard court with a consistent bounce, it would be slick and there would be some altitude.

Riyadh ticks all three boxes.

The American who made her first Grand Slam final at the US Open in September should be well rested for this tournament having not played in the last month.

Despite all these factors she is an outsider in her first group match against Coco Gauff.

The younger American has not been at her best this year but after round of 16 losses at both the Olympics and the US Open she separated from her coach Brad Gilbert in favour of a new approach.

Early signs have been positive as Gauff won in Beijing before a semi-final run in Wuhan. However, even though results may have had an upturn it is unlikely she has remedied the obvious technical flaws that are currently holding her back from regular success at the top of the sport.

Her serve can often be erratic, while her forehand is regularly a shot that misfires. It is why she has had her best results on slower tracks where she can defend all day by outlasting opponents in longer rallies, and alleviating her need to take offensive risks outside her comfort zone.

Gauff has said that she has modified her service grip and has been working on a new approach during the past two weeks. However, I doubt that is enough time for her to have conquered her demons. She has clarified that she expects improvements to be noticeable over the long-term.

Unfortunately for Gauff she is playing an opponent that is an expert in exploiting her weaknesses. Pegula leads Gauff by four wins to one in their head to head, including all three matches on a hard court.

The formula that Pegula will implement in this match is simple and it is repeatable. She will hit flat strikes and look to rush the Gauff forehand in particular. Pegula's timing of the ball is sweet, and she should find the pace to her liking.

Gauff on the other hand would like to mix up the heights of the ball and swing Pegula around the court, but it is much harder to do that consistently and with adequate control when the ball is moving at pace.

There are several factors in Pegula's favour here and I think she is good value to win at 13/82.63.

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