Shanghai Masters Final Preview and Tip: Djokovic can topple Sinner at 2.88

• Life in old dog Djokovic

• Sinner sits on top of the world

• Odds too big for one-off match

The 2024 tennis season has seen a changing of the guard at the top of the men's game. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have shared the major titles, whilst time is finally catching up on the sport's greatest names.

In his triumphant season, 23 year-old Sinner has been the player to beat on a hard court claiming titles in Melbourne, Miami, Cincinnati and New York. With victory in the semi-final against Tomas Machac, the Italian secured the position as the year end world number one.

On the eve of the Shanghai final Sinner starts as favourite 1.528/15 against Novak Djokovic 2.8815/8, but I expect Djokovic will be keen to clip Sinner's wings.

Djokovic's golden year

Djokovic no longer finds himself at the summit of the sport. At 37 years-old, he is finally showing the signs of physical decline - unable to perform at his peak in the best of five set Grand Slam format, whilst his bones are noticeably creaking as he deals with one injury after another.

However, there is fight in the old dog yet as he showed with a spectacular against the odds victory over Alcaraz to win gold at the Paris Olympic games.

Only a couple of weeks beforehand, Alcaraz had humbled Djokovic in a one-sided Wimbledon final. But Djokovic showed his incredible match-play skills and fighting spirit to deliver the victory under intense and constant pressure from Alcaraz.

The result brought Alcaraz to tears, and confirmed the Serbian's status as the most successful male player in history. Olympic gold was the only title missing from an otherwise complete collection of accolades.

Had Djokovic not won gold, it would be hard to claim this season as a success for the veteran. He has yet to win a tour title this season, and currently sits on 99 career titles won. Failure to win a tournament this season will be his first trophyless season since his rookie 2005 season.

Djokovic in fine form

Djokovic has been very impressive in Shanghai. In a week when his great rival Rafa Nadal announced time on his career, Novak has made it clear that the writing of his obituary is premature.

Wins over Flavio Cobolli and Roman Safiullin were the cleanest and most convincing of his season to date, while he also showed the youthful Alex Michelsen and Jakub Mensik that they still have miles to accumulate on the clock before they can defeat the elite.

However, it was his semi-final win over Taylor Fritz that stands out. The American is in career best form having recently reached a maiden Grand Slam final, but for the first set Djokovic was playing on a whole other stratosphere than Fritz.

Djokovic was controlling points, serving well and pulling out defensive passing shot winners like in his heydey.

It wasn't all plain sailing though, Djokovic's body started to show signs of wear and tear in set two and Fritz had opportunities to bring it to a third set. Of course, Djokovic produced a characteristic escape act, but even had it gone the distance I would expect he would have found a way to victory.

Sinner the hard court master

Beating Fritz is one thing, but it is clear that Jannik Sinner is a different kettle of fish. The Italian is the player to beat on a hard court this season.

Sinner has the best formula on tour to grind out wins on that surface. Some would argue that it is Djokovic's formula - a big, reliable and consistent serve plus discipline, durability and control in the rallies, and a cool head under pressure and bravery to attack winning opportunities.

Although time is catching up with Djokovic I still give him a chance over the course of three sets against any player.

There was a very good line said by the commentator in Sinner's recent defeat to Alcaraz in Beijing that Sinner plays at a consistent eight or nine level throughout the course of a match, but Alcaraz can occasionally reach level ten. The only other players that have been able to do that are Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.

I trust that Djokovic despite his ailing condition can bring a competitive level to these one-off matches, much like a Rocky Balboa type character.

Djokovic will know what to expect from Sinner and if the Italian executes it perfectly then perhaps he will be able to overwhelm the veteran. However, if Djokovic is able to dig his claws into this contest I think he has what it takes to get the win.

Sinner won their only match this season at the Australian Open, which was a huge shock for how dominant the Italian was in his victory. Sure, Djokovic was nowhere near his best in Australia, butthe result does accurately demonstrate the switching of the guard at the top of the sport. It must not however be seen as an open and shut verdict of the Serbian's chances in this meeting.

You just know that Djokovic will be looking to react to that result. He likes proving to himself and his main challengers that he is the best, as he did at the Olympics. Djokovic is showing the best form of his season and if his body holds up he is capable of going toe to toe with Sinner.

At 2.8815/8 Djokovic looks too big for a one-off, three set match of this nature.

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