Saturday Tennis Tips: Value on Humbert in Paris and Paolini in Riyadh

• Picks from both Paris and Riyadh

• Ugo Humbert can continue run @ 8/111.73

• Value on Paolini against rusty Rybakina @ 6/42.50

It is the business end of the tennis season for both the men and women.

At the ATP event in Paris the final four will fight it out to see who will win the biggest indoor tournament of the regular season, while the WTA finals with the biggest prize purse in women's tennis kicks off in Riyadh.

Is Frenchman Ugo Humbert primed to make a first Masters final, while in Saudi Arabia can 2024's surprise package Jasmine Paolini add yet another upset to her collection?

Humbert too hot to handle

This has been a week to remember for Ugo Humbert. The Metz native relishes a fast indoor court and has taken advantage of tailor-made conditions to advance to a Masters level semi-final for the first time in his career.

Most notably he impressively defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals, playing an attacking brand of tennis that was too hot to handle for the sport's top player. It was no fluke nor under performance by Alcaraz. This was a master of his craft at his best in his favourite conditions.

Humbert has a unique set of tools at his disposal. He is a lefty that has a powerful and swinging serve, and he backs that up with crisply struck flat strikes that make the most of speedy and indoor conditions.

He has had a successful 12 months winning indoor titles in Metz and Marseille, as well as the 500 event in Dubai. He is a horse for a course, and he has found conditions in Paris that are very much to his liking.

Opponent Karen Khachanov has had a disappointing season in which his tennis has too often been passive and exuding low-confidence.

However, he has come to life on indoor courts in the past few weeks winning the title in Almaty before backing that up with a run to the final in Vienna and this week's semi-final showing in Paris.

Altogether the Muscovite has won 12 of his last 13 matches.

Despite that run of form I agree with the market that Humbert is the player with the advantage in this contest.

Humbert is a player that blows hot and cold. For him to be successful he needs to play on the attack and he is only truly effective in selective weeks. When he is good, he can often be unplayable.

The Frenchman has been roared on to victory by a loud Parisian crowd that has been described as players as being louder than at the Grand Slams. Humbert has been a beneficiary of this environment.

Khachanov plays a steadier brand of tennis. If you were scoring the individual components of his game you would give him at least a seven or eight out of ten in most categories. However, he doesn't have the same ability to take a match out of an opponent's hands that Humbert has in his better form.

It will be a tight contest as both men are serving well and opportunities to break will be few and far between. Prior to this match both players have been broken only four times each throughout the tournament.

In the decisive moments it will be Humbert that is more likely to take a swing and Khachanov who will try to maintain control. The match will be on Humbert's racket and I believe he is playing well enough to generate chances and to take one of them when they come around.

While Humbert, the son of a butcher, might not make mince meat out of Khachanov he should have enough about him in current form to hit his way past the Russian.

Back Ugo Humbert to win at 8/111.73

Ultimate underdog Paolini can upset Rybakina

If you had asked me at the start of the season which eight players I thought would qualify for the tour finals, Jasmine Paolini would have been nowhere near the list.

However, the plucky Italian has had a season to remember causing a sensation to win the WTA 1000 event in Dubai, before a remarkable summer in which she battled through the field to become a finalist at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

She is living the dream at a career high ranking of four in the world yet is long odds to become champion this week, and will be keen to prove her doubters wrong once again as she prepares to kick off her campaign in Riyadh.

It is difficult to imagine Paolini as anything but the underdog, yet she continues to surprise.

Rybakina's woes

Again she is considered the outsider for her first group stage match against Elena Rybakina.

The Kazakhstani player is priced as favourite to win here despite not playing a match since her second round withdrawal from the US Open.

Rybakina's attempted comeback has been complicated. Firstly, she has split from long-term coach Stefano Vukov in controversial circumstances. There were rumours that the separation was not amicable and the coach has reportedly had his tour credentials removed, amidst speculation over his misconduct.

Secondly, Rybakina has struggled with one health concern or another this season and has said in her own words that her preparation for Riyadh has been far from ideal.

Rybakina said, "I started training like two and a half weeks ago... I had a lot of ups and downs starting with sleep problems, like insomnia or whatever it was. Then allergies, then my back. When you are used to such a rhythm, it is not easy to stop. But then I got used to a little rest, I would say. It was really nice. Of course, maybe I'm not 100%. Yes, I can't wait and I'm happy to be healthy now and to start playing."

There is no doubting that Rybakina is a top-tier talent. The former Wimbledon champion can be unplayable when in form as she has the power to take the match out of an opponent's hands like no other player.

At the start of this season Rybakina demolished the world number one Aryna Sabalenka for the loss of only three games in Brisbane. That is how good she can be.

However, with only two weeks of preparation and with an unsettled coaching set-up I find it hard to believe she will be at her highest level straight off the bat.

It is almost disrespectful to Paolini to suggest she will be blown away here by an unready opponent. Even though Paolini's top level is incomparable to that which Rybakina can produce, and although the Italian's points were mostly compiled in a summer purple patch, it still ignores that Paolini is always competitive and is a justified world number four.

If Rybakina plays well then she will not only win this match but should be considered a contender to win the whole tournament. I am struggling to see how that is possible based on her lack of activity, preparedness and coaching upheaval.

You know what you are getting with Paolini and at 6/42.50 the sport's ultimate underdog is good value to do her thing yet again.

Back Jasmine Paolini to win at 6/42.50

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