Qatar Open Tips: Improving Daniel likely to trouble Murray again

The first price that strikes me as being a tad questionable on Tuesday is in Doha and it's the 3.613/5 about Taro Daniel defeating Andy Murray.

Daniel was a comfortable straight sets winner over the veteran Scot at the Australian Open as a 4.57/2 chance and given the fairly obvious improvements that Daniel has made to his game I don't mind the odds again today.

The Japanese player was near the top of the stats in terms of first serve points won at the Australian Open this year, with 77% (the same mark as Nick Kyrgios and just 2% fewer than Daniil Medvedev), which tends to confirm that his serve is a much-improved weapon so far in 2022.

Murray did have his chances against Daniel (took only 2 of 11 break chances) but not only was Daniel better on first serve (78% won compared to Murray's 65%), but on second serve he won 51% (Murray just 39%).

Daniel also played well the next round against Jannik Sinner and was very competitive for two sets before Daniel tired, but Sinner only won 32% of his second serve points that day.

Daniel hit serves at 215kph this year at Melbourne (194 was his best there the previous year) and his average was around 5kph quicker than 12 months before, so he's a different proposition if he keeps this up.

He's been training in Miami since the AO, while Murray has been very hit and miss since his return to the tour and has been beaten as favourite six times in his last 11 completed matches.

Murray has been beaten as favourite six times in his last 11 completed matches

On the small amount of data we have for 2022 so far, Daniel has a higher combined service points won/return points won total (105) than Murray (103) and a better hold/break total (106) than the Scot (104), so if Daniel keeps his level up he's well in this contest.

The straight win at 3.613/5 or the +3.5 games at around 2.111/10 look the bets in this one.

Underdogs in with chances in Rio

Fabio Fognini finally managed to win his first clay match of the season (the first time he's managed that since 2015) when he beat Pedro Martinez in Buenos Aires, but was then beaten in two by Federico Delbonis.

Now he faces another Argentine lefty in Facundo Bagnis, who, as we know, let a 5-1 lead over Francisco Cerundolo turn into a 5-7, 1-6 loss in Buenos Aires and this will be a first career meeting between the pair.

Delbonis had a really good day on serve last week against Fognini (surprising given the wind and his high ball toss) when he made 79% of his first serves and won 78% of his first serve points.

Delbonis only won four second serve points all match against Fognini but still won in two, so good was his serving, and Bagnis doesn't possess that kind of firepower on serve.

Indeed, Bagnis seems to be lacking in confidence at the moment and has won only one of four main draw matches in Rio (Fognini is 11-6 win/loss here) so this looks very winnable for Fabio.

There's very little between them on stats over the past 12 months on clay though, so it's not one for my money.

On the subject of left-handers, Fernando Verdasco has shown some improved form in the last couple of weeks and his career series with Dusan Lajovic has been very competitive over the years.

All bar one of their clashes has gone to a final set and while on clay it's 1-1 head-to-head it's Verdasco with better numbers in terms of service points won/return points won combined in those two clay matches.

Verdasco is as high as 106 compared to Lajovic's 94 and it's the fact that Verdasco failed with a whopping 75% of his break chances and Lajovic took 46% of his that's allowed the Serb to have success in this match-up.

Those matches were some time ago and you wonder what Verdasco has left now at 38 years of age.

Lajovic hasn't been in good form on this Golden Swing so far and was very lucky to beat Benoit Paire, who somehow managed to miss several glorious chances to win that one, and then he almost reversed that situation against Federico Coria in his next match.

Lajovic is 6-15 win/loss versus top-100 ranked left-handers on clay at main level, so Verdasco has his chances here.

Lajovic is 6-15 win/loss versus top-100 ranked left-handers on clay at main level, so Verdasco has his chances here

Federico Coria was struggling at the start of the year due to Covid and the mental side of things related to that, as he explained in Buenos Aires last week:

"I lost a lot of confidence in the physical part due to COVID. After not having a good pre-season, it caused me many fears. Every time I got agitated, I panicked. I stopped wanting my heart rate to go up for fear of something happening to me."

That come-from-behind win over Lajovic in Buenos Aires, in which Lajovic served for a straight sets win, has seemingly given Coria his confidence in his own fitness back and in this match-up with Cristian Garin he's been more than competitive.

Garin has only won 38% of his second serve points against Coria in their two clay meetings - one here in Rio in 2020 and the other in Bastad in 2021 - and on combined service/return points won it's Coria that is ahead (103 to 98).

Garin was nowhere near his best last week in Buenos Aires in a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 loss to Sebastian Baez and could be a vulnerable favourite here.

Laslo Djere came to Rio in 2019 having failed to beat a top-100 player since the previous October and on a run of seven losses in his previous nine matches, but went home with the title that week.

In round one in Rio in 2022, Djere arrives in Rio having lost eight of his last 10 matches and he faces the man he should have beaten in the 2021 Sardinia final - Lorenzo Sonego.

That day, Djere led by a set and was 15-40 up on the Sonego serve at 5-5 in the second, poised to serve for the title, but ended up losing a tight tie break and then the final set, too.

Improbably, Djere beat Sonego on a hard court in Doha as a 3.17217/100 chance in 2020 and the underdog has won all three of their career meetings so far, with Djere being a 1.784/5 shot for that Sardinia final.

Sonego has, so far, saved a staggering 79% of the break points against him versus Djere on clay and given that there's very little in it apart from that on the stats the Serb has every chance of halting his poor run here.

Benoit Paire is 2-8 on the Golden Swing in his career, but he should have beaten Lajovic last week and he might catch Francisco Cerundolo in a bit of a funk after the latter failed to serve it out against Diego Schwartzman in the Buenos Aires quarter finals.

Cerundolo, so far, has played much better at main level in Buenos Aires than anywhere else and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a let down from Cerundolo here in very different conditions - whether Paire would take advantage of it is another question.

Sebastian Baez had big problems in qualifying for the main draw in Rio, coming from a set down to beat Nikola Milojevic and then getting the better of Yannick Hanfmann from 6-7, 3-5 behind.

Baez only held serve in 55% of his service games in qualies, but his reward now is to face Thiago Monteiro in round one of the main draw.

Baez beat Monteiro twice in Challenger finals in the autumn of last year and he was pretty comfortable in both matches, while Monteiro has only once won back-to-back matches in the main draw of his home tournament in Rio.

Perhaps Baez's struggles in qualies will have taken a lot of energy from him and Monteiro might get pumped up by the home support, but Baez, who's won eight of his last nine matches at all levels has the strong backhand to likely deal with Monteiro.

Thompson usually a solid favourite

Regular readers will know that I'm not keen on backing favourites, but Jordan Thompson seemed a little generous at 1.728/11 to beat journeyman Mitchell Krueger.

Krueger is a fair Challenger player, but he's 3-12 win/loss at main level, with a combined service points and return points won total of 91 and a hold/break total of 84.

The only top-100 player that Krueger has beaten at main level is Benoit Paire (twice) and he's only won 34% of his matches at any level against top-100 opposition.

The only top-100 player that Krueger has beaten at main level is Benoit Paire

Thompson got bageled last week in Dallas and maybe that's affected the price here, but it was against the unusual style of Jenson Brooksby and Krueger offers nothing like that sort of variety.

Indeed, Thompson is solid when it comes to winning matches in the price range of 1.618/13 to 1.794/5 at main level, with a 9-3 record in his last 12 matches when priced up in that range.

The Aussie has come in now to 1.618/13 so the value has gone there somewhat.

It's not for me at that price and I'll just take 1 point on Daniel at 3.613/5 and 1 point on Daniel on the handicap at 2.111/10.