Paris Masters Preview and Tips: Take a chance on Machac and Fils in soft quarters

• Seven time champ Djokovic withdraws

• Sinner and Alcaraz players to beat

• Upstart Fils and improving Machac can crack the later rounds

The Paris Masters is the largest tournament remaining on the 2024 tour calendar and the last chance for players to accumulate big points to qualify for the year end finals in Turin next month.

It has been a season marked by change at the top and the dominance of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have split the biggest prizes in the sport and look set to resume battle during these concluding weeks of the season.

This golden duo has knocked Novak Djokovic off the summit of the sport, and the Serbian is notable by his absence in Paris this week. It had been a happy hunting ground for Djokovic, who has won this tournament seven times, and his withdrawal seems a strategic decision to recharge batteries before Turin.

Although Djokovic has dominated this event, historically it has been known for the prevalence of players outside of the obvious names to deliver a good week.

Different names and unique conditions

In recent years winners have included unseeded players such as Holger Rune, Karen Khachanov, Daniil Medvedev and Jack Sock, while runners up have included Grigor Dimitrov, Denis Shapovalov and Filip Krajinovic.

Paris is the biggest indoor tournament on the tennis calendar and although the conditions are set differently from year to year - according to the data it is not typically the slickest surface on tour - it has often been lower bouncing than the hard courts experienced across the rest of the season.

The combination of an indoor arena and an irregular bounce makes for a unique challenge and is one significant reason for the frequency of unfamiliar names in the title matches.

Another is that with a maximum 1000 points up for grabs, a strong week can provide you with the points needed to become one of the eight qualifiers at the year end championships.

As it stands only four players have qualified - Sinner, Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Medvedev - although it seems likely fifth placed Taylor Fritz and sixth placed Djokovic have also done enough to qualify given the unlikely sequence of events that would need to take place for them to fail in registering their attendance.

Sinner and Alcaraz motivations?

This has been an incredible season for both Sinner and Alcaraz, yet they still have serious business to attend to over the next month.

Both will have ambitions to win the year end finals, and also the Davis Cup, which concludes the following week.

If either felt in need of pacing themselves before that final sprint then perhaps Paris is an opportune moment time to conserve mental and physical energy for the more intense challenges ahead.

Sinner has already secured the year end number one ranking with several tournaments to go, while Alcaraz will have one eye on the Davis Cup finals where he is being relied upon to carry Spain and Rafa Nadal towards one final moment of glory before the Mallorcan's impending retirement.

That said, given their dominance this season you will still need some bravery to oppose the pair in Paris, however the lingering doubt about their motivations makes me uncomfortable to back either at their customary low prices.

Secure quarters for Alcaraz and Sinner

The top two have landed decent draws this week and if they play to form they should come through.

Sinner should expect a challenge in his first match from either Ben Shelton or Felix Auger-Aliassime, whom both are at their best indoors, but you would expect the Italian to be too steady for either.

In the latter rounds I would be intrigued by how he handles the improving Jack Draper, who has produced some top performances this week in Vienna to follow-up his semi-final US Open run. Yet, you would still fancy Sinner will find a way.

As for Alcaraz, he has the fortune of having Casper Ruud as the next highest seed in his quarter. Ruud is one of the best clay courters on the planet but on harder and faster tracks he too often appears as a fish out of water.

Tommy Paul and Ugo Humbert are both capable of bringing a good match out of Alcaraz but the Spaniard should still have the tools to advance.

Fils can find success in Paris

Outside of the big two there is no obvious form player in the top 10 and I think there is value looking deeper into the pack.

The second quarter is bookended by Zverev and Andrey Rublev.

Zverev has had an incredibly consistent season and has earned his position as the third ranked player on tour. However, every win is gained through hard work, a big serve and outgrinding his opponents. It is consistency personified, but there has been a noticeable dip in his results during the second half of the season.

The fundamentals of Rublev's game are similar to Zverev but this has not been a successful campaign for the Russian. Rather than taking a stride forward this season, it has been one where the limitations of his game have been exposed and his most noteworthy contributions to the year's highlight reel compilation is a series of one meltdown after another.

No player could do with the off-season more than Andrey.

There is opportunity in these conditions for a player with a more attacking skillsuit and more adventurous mindset to take advantage.

20-year old Frenchman Arthur Fils is the youngest player in the top 20 and is quickly realising his potential. Fils compares himself to compatriot Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and that is not far off the mark.

The attacking level he produced to win Tokyo at the start of October was incredible and if the man who grew up on the outskirts of Paris can produce a repeat performance he can have a good week back home.

Fils is capable of reaching the latter rounds and I can see value in backing him each way at 19/1

Mighty Machac

2020 champion Daniil Medvedev is the top seed in the third quarter but it would be fair to say he has not looked a contender for quite a while.

A series of bruising defeats to Alcaraz and Sinner has left Medvedev scratching his head. At a recent big money showcase event in Saudi Arabia, Medvedev notched only three games across two sets against Sinner before telling the media that he has never played an opponent quite as good as the Italian.

He then withdrew from Vienna with a shoulder problem that has plagued his entire season.

The second highest seed in this quarter Grigor Dimitrov made the Paris final last year, and he carried that level throughout the early part of this season.

Results have been mixed more recently, and he was well beaten by Tomas Machac in Vienna last week.

It was a noteworthy performance from the Czech Machac, and it was the latest evidence that he is heading in the right direction.

Machac is an elegant ballstriker, not only packing a punch but able to carve out a wide selection of angles. He is stringing together impressive form of late as shown by semi-final runs in both Tokyo and Shanghai.

He is in-form and is showing that he can defeat top opponents. I also think he will fancy conditions in Paris that should reward players with a technical attacking skillset.

If Machac brings his best he can give a good run for our money at 50/1 each-way.

Read more tips, previews and insight across all sports on Betting.Betfair.com