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Popyrin having one of those weeks
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Khachanov gruelling schedule
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2.3811/8 on Australian looks value
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Alexei Popyrin is the ultimate hot and cold player. The Australian has always had talent but the problem is there is no telling from week to week which version will show up.
He has experienced 10 first round defeats this season, but also provided the most surprising title win of 2024 when as the 62nd ranked player he won the Montreal Masters in August beating three top 10 players along the way.
It seems that Popyrin is having another big week having notched two impressive wins over Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev in Paris.
Popyrin can beat anyone when he's on form, just ask Novak Djokovic who he toppled at the US Open and pushed to his limits at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.
He will fancy his chances of continuing his purple patch against Karen Khachanov, who he has beaten before and who has been struggling for much of this season.
Khachanov running out of steam
Karen Khachanov starts this match as the market favourite having burst into life this past month winning a title in Almaty before reaching the final in Vienna.
It has been the highlight of a miserable 2024 for the Russian who started the year ranked 15 before dipping down to 27 at the end of September.
The 28-year old had a hard time picking up results in the bigger events this year failing to register even one Grand Slam quarter-final - a significant drop from the 2023 season where he made semis in Melbourne and the last eight at Roland Garros.
The lack of self-confidence from Khachanov was evident in many of his notable defeats as he played far too cautiously when losing as a heavy favourite in the Slams to Josef Kovalik, Quentin Halys and Dan Evans.
However, at the conclusion of a bruising outdoor hard court season Khachanov returned to his favoured indoor courts and showed his class by easing through the field to win the title in Almaty - albeit against a limited field.
A week later though he kept the good times rolling by reaching back to back finals where he was eventually beaten by Britain's Jack Draper, who is looking more and more a top tier player with each passing week.
It is clear that this is a time of the season that Khachanov enjoys, and the Paris Masters was the scene of his greatest career victory when he bagged the title in 2018.
The Russian's game is naturally suited to indoors as he possesses a dependable serve, and can back it up with consistent and measured powerful ground stroke quality.
However, he has played a lot of matches lately and he didn't look fresh when he just about survived his first round encounter against Christopher O'Connell in a 3rd set breaker, before taking advantage of evidently jaded rookie Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard who won the biggest title of his career in Basel at the weekend.
Over the past two and a half weeks Khachanov has played 11 matches, including two mentally gruelling three set duels at the start of his Paris campaign.
Popyrin in good rhythm
Popyrin has beaten two quality opponents this week. When he builds up a head of steam, he can be very hard to stop.
He possesses a booming first serve and has ample potency off the ground. He is not afraid to go for his shots and showed the confidence to keep attacking the defensive wall that is Medvedev despite handing the Russian 50 unforced errors.
Popyrin has the game to trouble Khachanov, although he has not always been rewarded with victories.
They have played four tiebreak sets across four matches, including two final set breakers both won by Khachanov. However, the clearest victory by either player was achieved by Popyrin who smacked Khachanov off the court in Tokyo last season.
The stability of Khachanov has been the key to getting those victories but Popyrin is unquestionably the more explosive player and the fast Paris conditions could be to his advantage.
With his new found level of self-belief Popyrin should have a better chance than ever before at getting the better of Khachanov who must be tired, and whose recent run of form is unlikely to be sustainable for too much longer.
At 2.3811/8 there is reason to be optimistic in siding with Popyrin.
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