Paris Masters Preview and Tip: Back tight encounter between Zverev and Griekspoor at 15/8

• Paris is the quickest ATP courts for a decade

• Griekspoor not without a chance

• First set tiebreak is value pick at 7/4

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We all remember that Alexander Zverev was a set away from becoming the French Open champion this year. However, what we might forget is that he almost didn't make it that as far as the final.

The German's second round opponent in Paris, Tallon Griekspoor, was leading 4/1 in the deciding set of their third round French Open match before going on to lose to the eventual tournament runner-up.

It is a result that unfortunately for the Dutchman he has become all too familiar with. In their subsequent meeting one month ago in Shanghai, Griekspoor tasted another final set tiebreak defeat. In total the players have met six times and have contested five tiebreaks, all of which have been won by Zverev.

They are set to resume battle in Paris and it is likely to once again be a tight contest.

Quick conditions favour big servers

The greatest reason for the close matches in their series is the high quality serving of both players and the speedy surface.

Carlos Alcaraz described the courts as "really, really fast" and the matches I have seen so far have confirmed a familiar pattern where bigservers are certainly doing well.

According to data recorded so far, this tournament scores as the fastest event of any played on the ATP tour over the past 10 years.

In his first round match against Luciano Darderi, Griekspoor bombed down 19 Aces and won 97% of his first serve points with an impressive first serve percentage of 73%.

It was a great performance by the Haarlem native, who is typically at his best on faster tracks as evidenced by his two tour titles collected on the slick hard court of Pune and the grass court of Rosmalen.

Griekspoor's ranking has slipped this year despite reaching a career high, and his performance levels have been consistently strong even if it has not fully materialised into ranking points.

Zverev for his part has made the final here once before and enters this event as the player with the third highest percentage of service holds on serve over the last year.

His 89.4% service holds is only marginally bettered by the Italian duo of Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner.

The conditions and serving form of both players suggests this one will be close again.

Griekspoor has a chance

I do think Griekspoor has a chance here for a couple of reasons.

First of all his own form is at a high standard as shown by the exceptional numbers he produced in the first round.

Secondly, Zverev has not been firing on all cylinders compared to earlier in the campaign. He was the form player - arguably only second to the dominant Sinner - throughout the first six months of the year, but he has not hit those heights in the months thereafter.

Zverev has explained that the reason for his dip in form is that he contracted pneumonia and has had to carefully manage his fitness.

However, I would also argue that Zverev's style of tennis also leaves him vulnerable to upset on faster tracks. His serve is clearly as good as can be, but he regularly plays too passively as his preference is to use his fitness and steadiness to outgrind opponents. It requires a great deal of mental composure and concentration to win consistently with that approach.

To be fair, it is this solidity that has edged him ahead of Griekspoor in their previous encounters.

It might well work here again, but with conditions this quick a more aggressive baseliner such as Griekspoor has his chances if he is able to execute on the day. Zverev may not get away with playing as deep behind the baseline as he likes to do.

Zverev himself expects this match to be close. After his narrow victory in Shanghai he said of Griekspoor, "He's an incredible player, somebody I always struggle against, we always have good matches.

"For me personally, he should be a lot higher ranked than he is. He needs to look at why he's not playing like that every single week. If he was playing like that he'd be a contender for big tournaments. Top-15, top-10 in the world. For me, he's an incredible player."

Value on a tight first set

Although I can see reasonable grounds to side with Griekspoor here, ultimately the evidence of their head to head puts me off. Zverev typically finds a way.

What I do see more clearly is that if both players come to the court in good serving form there is a reasonable chance for at least one tiebreak in this match.

Over 12.5 games in set one is a tasty looking 15/82.88 and this seems value based on form and head to head.

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