Paris Masters Preview and Tip: Back Thompson to send Ruud packing at 2.28

• Ruud struggles in conditions

• Thompson having career best year

• Australian too big at 2.285/4

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The notion of a surface specialist is something of a rarity in modern day tennis. Surface speeds have become more uniform, most notably at events such as Wimbledon, which is less of a serve and rush-to-the-net competition than it used to be.

This has had an equalising effect on the sport, and masters of the baseline such as Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have taken full advantage of this apparent slowing down of conditions by winning multiple titles at events that years prior they would have less enjoyed.

However, Casper Ruud is a throwback to an older generation in that he is very much a horse for a course. The Norwegian is a top 10 staple, but he accumulates the vast majority of his ranking points during the clay season.

His record on the dirt is exceptional as evidenced by twice being a runner-up at the French Open, and this year alone he picked up 25 wins and two clay court titles in Barcelona and Geneva.

However, he has notched a combined total of only 20 wins across all other surfaces for the season. An extraordinary record when you consider the clay swing is confined to the months of April and May.

Bearing in mind he is routinely seeded and thus avoids high calibre competition in early rounds, this is not a record the 7th seed in Paris this week can be proud of.

He will struggle to add to his non clay wins this evening against the Australian speed court specialist Jordan Thompson.

Thompson has the tools

30-year old Thompson has worked out how to get the best out of his game.

He is a tour journeyman that has made a career out of picking up the occasional win here and there by playing the full tennis calendar and grinding as much as he can out of quite a basic toolkit.

It has taken time, but this year he is maximising his talent, enjoying a career best season, and with that he currently holds a career best ranking of 28.

Thompson has a simple formula - to serve big and consistently, and back that up with hard work and steadiness from the baseline.

What he has improved this year is his decision making, which he demonstrates with his canny knack of knowing the correct time to attack the net to finish points or give his opponent a difficult passing shot.

He notched a first tour title in Los Cabos this year, and also had creditable runs in Brisbane, Queens Club, Atlanta and the US Open - all conditions that skew on the faster side and suit his playing style.

Along the way he has enjoyed two wins this season against Ruud, including in the Los Cabos final.

I watched his recent victory over the Norwegian in Tokyo and it was evident that Thompson has the tools to frustrate Ruud not only because of his strong serving and steadiness off the ground, but he can also effectively target the biggest weakness in the Norwegian's arsenal - the backhand.

Ruud needs a lot of time to strike up that wing, and it is one of the reasons why he is more effective on the dirt. If Ruud is rushed on his backhand it represents arguably the biggest weaknes of any player at the top end of the men's game.

To magnify how important the conditions are to Ruud's game, when he met Thompson on a clay court this season it was a 4&1 mauling by the Norwegian.

Thompson in good form

Thompson has a match under his belt already in Paris - an impressive professional performance to dispatch top 40 player Pedro Martinez.

It was a tidy, controlled and disciplined level and it is exactly how he will approach this evening's encounter with Ruud.

The Australian lacks a big plus-one shot and is easily beatable on a slower surface but he has the smarts and strategy to make the most of his game when it happens to be slicker.

Ruud out of comfort zone

It is rare that we see Ruud on an indoor hard court, as he would clearly prefer to be playing with dirt under his feet. Unfortunately for him the calendar in this latter part of the year is devoid of such tournaments.

He has won only one of his four indoor matches this year, and has a losing 3-5 record in the Paris Master main draw.

Thompson is much too big at 2.285/4. He has a match under his belt already and has proven this season that his game matches up well to Ruud in these conditions.

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