Miami Open Men's Outright Tips: Alcaraz is better bet than favourite Medvedev

Dan Weston
23 March 2022
3:00 min read

Daniil Medvedev in action at Indian Wells

Dan Weston thinks Medvedev (above) is a weak favourite in Miami

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In the absence of the men's singles leading lights the Miami Open looks exactly that - wide open - says tennis tipster Dan Weston as he previews another fascinating event...

"While it would be a lot to ask of Fritz to go back to back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alcaraz go better than at Indian Wells, where he reached the semi-final." Carlos Alcaraz @ 8.415/2

Following Taylor Fritz's shock triumph at the Indian Wells Masters, there's more ATP Masters action ahead with the Miami Open starting today.

Rafa Nadal suffered his first defeat of 2022 with his loss to Taylor Fritz in the final of the Indian Wells Masters, and the Spaniard is not in the field for Miami this weekn. Neither is Novak Djokovic, who has an excellent record in Miami.

Favourite Medvedev unlikely to win

With the world number one's continued absence from tour opening up every major event to the field, Daniil Medvedev 4.47/2 and Alexander Zverev 6.611/2 are the top two seeds in Florida and they lead the betting on the Exchange.

While Indian Wells typically has played very slowly compared to the average ATP hard court, Miami is a bit quicker but still fairly slow - aces per game, service points won and service hold percentages are all down in the last three years compared to the ATP mean figures. On this basis, don't expect quite the market adjustment towards clay-courters that is often seen at Indian Wells, although conditions in Miami still won't be particularly to the liking of the big servers.

Although he's not really a big-server, top seed and tournament favourite Medvedev prefers quicker conditions and, as discussed in the Indian Wells preview, he was quite an easy fade in those very slow conditions.

He hasn't got a spectacular record here, losing in the quarter-finals to Roberto Bautista-Agut in straight sets last year as the top seed. In 2019, when ranked 15 in the world, the Russian was ousted by Roger Federer in the last 16 having almost lost to Reilly Opelka in his second match (the match went to three tiebreaks).

So, Medvedev certainly doesn't look like a strong favourite to win the trophy despite his odds. In his half of the draw are the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia, Felix Auger-Aliassime and last week's winner Taylor Fritz.

Market alive to Alcaraz's potential

While it would be a lot to ask of Fritz to go back to back, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alcaraz go better than at Indian Wells, where he reached the semi-final. The young Spaniard has produced stunning numbers so far this season, running at almost 112% combined service/return points won on hard court, and similar across all surfaces from a bigger sample size of data.

With anything over 110% being considered elite level, Alcaraz clearly is on the path to greatness, but unfortunately the market has worked this out also - he's the [ 8.4] third favourite for the event.

The bottom half of the draw looks competitive, with Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie all among those with a solid chance of making the latter stages.

Second seed Zverev is favourite to progress out of the bottom half of the draw, but there are clear worries about backing the German following his default in Acapulco and subsequent loss to Tommy Paul in his opener at Indian Wells.

For so long on the ATP Tour, the elite players have dominated proceedings. In their absence, there's a fascinating dynamic developing, rather similar to the WTA Tour, where every player has their strengths and weaknesses, and many are capable of beating each other on a given day.

As a neutral, this makes events far more interesting and creates a really open feel to this event over the next week and a half. The market looks pretty accurate, but we should have a superb tournament in prospect.