Indian Wells Men's Day 6 Tips: Take Harris on the handicap against Berrettini

Medvedev and Tsitsipas exit on day five

In our outright preview, we discussed the difficulty that Daniil Medvedev might have in these slower than average hard court conditions, and so it proved, with the world number one falling in three sets to Gael Monfils, while also joining Medvedev in exiting was Stefanos Tsitsipas, who exited to Jenson Brooksby in three as well.

Both of the young prospects I mentioned as being priced by the market as being capable of beating bigger-named opposition won, with Carlos Alcaraz Garfia easily disposing of countryman Roberto Bautista-Agut for the loss of just two games, so we got a lot right yesterday.

Unfortunately, our actual pick for the day, Denis Shapovalov, was ousted by Reilly Opelka, despite us having the only tiebreak in the match fall our way. Opelka saved all four of the break point chances he faced on his serve though, so variance is still going in his direction to some degree.

Berrettini vulnerable to Harris threat

Moving on to today's action, the third round completes with the eight remaining matches in the round from the bottom half of the draw on the schedule, again starting at 18:00 UK time.

There are a number of strong favourites priced around the 1.21/5 to 1.330/100 mark, including Matteo Berrettini, Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev, and the latter trio look at least somewhat justified to be solid favourites.

I make Berrettini the most vulnerable, against Lloyd Harris. The Italian struggled past Holger Rune in his opener on Sunday, in his first match following retirement in Acapulco, so he may not be in the best physical condition currently.

Based on general market pricing, we should be about to get around 1.9420/21 on Harris +3.5 games, and given the strong serve of both players, this looks a decent line to me.

Dimitrov with solid opportunity to progress

Grigor Dimitrov has disappointed this season so far, but does have a decent opportunity to make round four against Alexander Bublik, who he beat on quicker hard court in Cincinnati last August.

That day, the Bulgarian was priced around the 1.84/5 mark and won in straight sets, but today the market is finding it tricky to separate the duo, with both around even money.

Bublik won an event indoors in Montpellier in February and does come into the meeting with better form, but both would probably prefer quicker conditions. I lean to Dimitrov but let's see.

On the subject of the court speed, Alex De Minaur as a slight 2.111/10 underdog against Tommy Paul would look big in quicker conditions, but maybe these slower courts are something of a leveller between the duo.

Clash of styles between Isner and Schwartzman

Finally, we also have an intriguing clash between two polarised players, John Isner and Diego Schwartzman. Isner is arguably the most serve-oriented player on tour, while Schwartzman is definitely the most return-oriented, and quite surprising the duo have only met once before, in 2017.

That match, in Paris, only featured one break of serve, with Isner winning just three more points in the clash.

I am anticipating a similarly competitive match today, although the clash of styles certainly fascinates - I lean towards Schwartzman to get the job done in these conditions, and so does the market, pricing him up at 1.8910/11 - a line I broadly agree with.