Dubai Tennis Championships Tips: Take a chance on enigmatic Hurkacz against Sinner

The Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships has reached its quarter final stage, with Novak Djokovic now a heavy favourite to win the title at 1.402/5.

The quarter finals in Dubai have produced only 26% underdog winners in the last nine editions, but Djokovic's retirement after set one against 17.016/1 shot Feli Lopez (Lopez's only ever win over Djokovic) in 2016 means that the quarters are still a profitable round if you'd backed all the dogs in the last six editions.

It appears that Hubert Hurkacz and Mackenzie McDonald have the best chances as underdogs on Thursday, with Hurkacz in with a fair shot against Jannik Sinner.

Sinner was fortunate to escape defeat against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Tuesday and on Wednesday he had to bide his time again before easing past Andy Murray and into the last eight.

Hurkacz remains somewhat of an enigma in the sense that he can look very much like a top-10 player some weeks and in others his level dips dramatically, so he's a hard one to try and evaluate.

He's played okay this week, but Alexander Bublik was off form and Alex Molcan has little in the way of weapons to really challenge the Pole, but this will be much more of a test.

After a shaky start, Sinner has played his way into this tournament and although I feel that Hurkacz may be better on a slower, higher bouncing type of court than this slick one in Dubai, he still has the game to win this.

His best results have tended to come in Florida, where he beat Sinner in the Miami final last year as a 2.3811/8 underdog when Sinner was made to pay for his nervousness in a first M1000 title match.

Sinner went on to beat Hurkacz easily as an alternate in the Tour Finals indoors in November, but if we look at their records recently against the current top-25 players in the world it makes interesting reading.

On outdoor hard at main level this past year versus the top-25, Hurkacz is 7-5 win/loss (Sinner 3-6 win/loss) and with 88% holds of serve and 20% breaks for a 108 total.

Hurkacz has revelled in the role of underdog, with a 10-11 win/loss record at main level on outdoor hard when priced at 2.506/4 or bigger

That's impressive and Sinner can only manage 77% holds and 17% breaks for a 94 total, while also trailing the Pole in terms of combined service points won/return points won.

Sinner is on 97 and Hurkacz 102, so against the best 25 players in the world it's Hurkacz who's been more effective on outdoor hard courts lately.

You never quite know what you're going to get from Hurkacz, as befits a man who made a Wimbledon semi final after just four previous main level wins on a grass surface, but he seems to enjoy facing the higher-ranked players.

He's revelled in the role of underdog, with a 10-11 win/loss record at main level on outdoor hard when priced at 2.506/4 or bigger, while on all surfaces at 2.506/4 or bigger he's only lost in straight sets twice in his last 12 matches, so there's enough in this for half a point on Hurkacz at 2.789/5 or on the handicap.

Mackenzie McDonald duly won as favourite against a typically un-clutch Filip Krajinovic on Tuesday, with the Serb losing five straight games from 4-1 in the opener and then faltering in the second set tie break, too.

McDonald's reward is a crack at Andrey Rublev, who he beat as a 2.59159/100 chance at the 2019 Australian Open.

Both men were ranked in the 80s in the world back then, but Rublev's top-10 these days and McDonald is 1-12 win/loss against the current top-10.

There's a chance that Rublev might start to feel the effects of the 25 sets that he's played in the last fortnight though and McDonald is good enough to take his chance if it arrives.

With that amount of tennis in him I couldn't back Rublev at 1.341/3 here.

Tabilo favourite for all-Chilean clash

There's little doubt as to where the crowd's main attentions will be in Santiago on Wednesday and that's the all-Chilean clash between top seed Cristian Garin and the fast-rising Alejandro Tabilo.

The pre-match odds of this one are in favour of Tabilo and that's due to the current poor form and physical condition of the defending Chile Open champion Garin.

Garin said last week after another dismal display - this time in Rio against Federico Coria - that he was struggling physically:

"I haven't felt well for a while," he revealed. "I've had this injury for a few months and I can't get better. I was pretty upset about the defeat here."

Garin was barely even competitive against Coria and unless there's been a huge improvement in his condition since last week it's hard to see how he wins this, although apparently Tabilo hasn't noticed how bad Garin is right now.

"He's playing well... it's going to be a tough match," Tabilo said of Garin after easily beating Renzo Olivo in round one.

Nerves might get to Tabilo, but on current form Garin ought not to.

The only previous time that Garin and Tabilo have clashed was here in Santiago a year ago, with Garin a 1.564/7 chance then and while I expect Tabilo to win I'm not seeing any huge value in him at odds-on.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is playing his first main level matches this week after coming through qualies and then beating Holger Rune in round one for his maiden ATP Tour victory.

Rune surely didn't help himself by inexplicably going from Buenos Aires on clay to Marseille to play on indoor hard and then back to South America for another clay tournament and it cost him.

Pucinelli De Almeida won handily but in the forecast dry and sunny day it's hard to see him beating Miomir Kecmanovic, who's enjoying the faster conditions at altitude in Santiago (he's a former Kitzbuhel champion).

Having lost two of his first three main level matches when priced up shorter than 1.42/5 Kecmanovic has now won his last 10 since the summer of 2019, so he's proven a solid pick at short prices recently.

Martinez a touch of value against Munar

A lengthy battle is expected between two clay grinders in Jaume Munar and Pedro Martinez, with the layers originally unable to split them.

You can see why from their main level clay stats over the past 12 months: just one point separating them in their service points won/return points won totals and exactly the same total in service holds/breaks.

The one notable difference is that Munar has created a fair few more break chances than Martinez: 0.83 per game compared to 0.62 per game, but Munar hasn't been great at converting them (just 35% converted).

What gave Martinez the edge when he beat Munar in the Marbella Challenger final in 2020 was that he was the one more willing to be proactive and try and make things happen, where Munar is content to wait for mistakes.

And that could be the difference again, where the aggressors often get their reward, and Martinez has gone well at altitude in the past (notably making the Kitzbuhel final last year).

What gave Martinez the edge when he beat Munar in the Marbella Challenger final in 2020 was that he was the one more willing to be proactive

Munar, as I mentioned the other day, hasn't been the most profitable player to follow as a narrow favourite - he's lost five of his last seven as a 1.715/7 to 1.910/11 favourite.

Martinez was blown away by a great performance from Diego Schwartzman in Rio and he hasn't had the best of Golden Swings, so form is a worry, but that can change quickly on the clay, as Facundo Bagnis has shown this week.

Munar at 1.728/11 looks too short again and I'm happy to have half a point on Martinez at these prices.