Dubai Tennis Championships Tips: Crafty Evans can get the better of Rublev again

In Dubai on Tuesday it's a rough turnaround for Andrey Rublev from winning the Marseille title indoors on Sunday to playing in very different conditions two days later.

And Rublev faces the man that beat him here in the opening round in 2020 - Dan Evans - who's defeated Rublev three times in their five career meetings overall.

It's proven to be the sort of match-up that Rublev doesn't really enjoy, with Evans using all his craft, spins, slices, and paces to throw Rublev off the rhythm that he needs from the back of the court.

Rublev was anything but convincing in Marseille, where he should have been beaten by Richard Gasquet, who was 5-2 up their final set but (in fairly typical Gasquet fashion) ended up losing in a final set breaker.

Rublev was also a break down in the final set against Lucas Pouille and was taken to a decider by Benjamin Bonzi before beating an exhausted and injured Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final.

So, it's an opponent that Rublev doesn't like facing, combined with a tough turnaround and I'm happy to back Evans here at around 2.506/4.

It's also a quick turnaround for Roberto Bautista Agut, who won in Doha on Saturday, but it's not quite as fast and not as much of a stark change in conditions for RBA as it is for Rublev.

RBA was another less-than-convincing title winner last week, with Karen Khachanov leading by 6-2, 1-1 and holding no fewer than seven break chances to lead by a set and a break in the semi finals.

RBA really had to tough that one out and went on to do not a lot in the final, as Nikoloz Basilashvili could barely find the court for much of that match.

Both Khachanov and Basilashvili were proving much too powerful for RBA to handle for spells in Doha and Arthur Rinderknech could well do something similar in Dubai.

Rinderknech did it really well on clay at altitude against RBA in Gstaad in what was RBA's opening match of the week there and the conditions will be cool and the slowest of the day when this pair meet again at (not before) 19:00 local time on Tuesday.

The slower conditions allow the Frenchman, whose movement isn't the best, a little extra time to set up his big forehand and he's been serving really well lately, with 89% holds in his last 10 main level matches on hard courts.

When priced up as favourite between 1.3130/100 and 1.491/2 at main level, Bautista Agut has lost seven of his last 12 matches

RBA's stats look impressive, but that's largely because of two very one-sided wins last week in Doha, and we'll see if he's able to adapt to the different conditions quickly enough to stop the big game of Rinderknech.

The Spaniard also had the trainer out in that Doha final for some sort of foot problem and he feels short enough at around 1.444/9.

Indeed, when priced up as favourite between 1.3130/100 and 1.491/2 at main level, RBA has lost seven of his last 12 matches, so he's been expensive for favourite backers to follow at this sort of price lately.

Marton Fucsovics beat Denis Shapovalov as a 4.23323/100 chance at the 2020 Australian Open and did it pretty convincingly, too, allowing Shapo to win only 39% of his second serve points, while winning 81% on his own first serve.

Fucsovics, like Harris, played well here in Dubai a year ago, but then so did Shapovalov, who was a final set tie break away from making the final (lost to Harris).

Shapo is really hard to call because of his inconsistency and already this year we've seen him almost beat eventual champion Rafa Nadal in Melbourne and then follow that up with losses to Jiri Lehecka and Arthur Rinderknech.

The Canadian looks the right favourite on the stats, but he's hardly reliable when priced up as favourite, with a record of 12 wins and 10 defeats in such matches since Wimbledon last summer.

Of those 12 victories, Shapo has only managed to win in straight sets five times, so if you are backing Shapo, perhaps the 2-1 to him is the way forward for value.

Jan-Lennard Struff has a 5-0 career series lead over Ricardas Berankis, but the German hasn't played since the Australian Open and he hasn't won a set yet on the main tour in 2022.

He withdrew from Doha last week, so presumably something is not quite right in the Struff camp this season.

Altitude expert Elahi Galan a nice price in Santiago

Daniel Elahi Galan beat Jaume Munar at slight altitude in Cordoba a few weeks ago and the Colombian is very much a player that's used to the conditions at even higher altitude in Santiago.

Born in Bucaramanga, which sits at almost 1,000m above sea level and residing in Bogota (over 2,500m above sea level) this week's tournament at over 800m of altitude should feel like home for Elahi Galan.

Indeed, he made the semi finals of Santiago a year ago (lost to eventual champion Garin) and also the quarter finals in Cordoba as a lucky loser after beating Munar, so playing clay court tennis at altitude is not a problem for Elahi Galan.

He also won a title in Chile at Challenger level only a month ago, so I wouldn't be at all surprised if he beat Munar again and went on to have a good run this week in Santiago.

Munar is often priced as slight favourite when he probably shouldn't be and he's lost nine times in his last 13 main level matches when priced up between 1.715/7 and 1.991/1

Munar won just 32% of his second serve points (Elahi Galan 66% of his) in that clash in Cordoba, although he wasn't helped by 11 double faults, and there's nothing to split this pair on the stats.

On clay at main level this past two seasons their combined service/return points won total are almost the same (101 for Elahi Galan and 100 for Munar) and their hold/break totals are both 99.

Elahi Galan wins 5% more points on second serve though and in these conditions, Munar looks once again to be priced too short.

Indeed, Munar is often priced as slight favourite when he probably shouldn't be and he's lost nine times in his last 13 main level matches when priced up between 1.715/7 and 1.991/1.

Yannick Hanfmann is another player who enjoys playing on clay at altitude, with finals to his name in Kitzbuhel and Gstaad, while his opponent today, Federico Coria's success at this level has mainly come in slower conditions.

We're set for another sunny week in Santiago, so I expect it will play as quickly as it has done the last two years, and that may well suit the underdog here.

Coria beat Hanfmann easily in very slow conditions in Bastad last season and the head-to-head (4-0 to Coria is rather off-putting), especially as one was played in Almaty, which is at least 500m above sea level.

Chances for Hanfmann here, but I'd have liked a bigger price than 2.26/5 given the way the career series has panned out.

As ever, Tuesday's a busy day on the tour, with plenty of decent betting options today and I'll take one point on Evans, one point on Elahi Galan and half a point on Rinderknech.