Davis Cup Finals: Back USA at 9/2 to crash Nadal retirement party

• Nadal wants storybook ending in Malaga

• Italy justified favourites to win Davis Cup at 13/82.63

• Talented USA collective can surprise opponents at 9/25.50

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The 22-time Grand Slam champion Rafael Nadal is hanging up his racket after the Davis Cup Finals in Malaga.

Rafa hopes to finish an incredible career with a flourish, by lifting the men's tennis equivalent of the World Cup for what would be the fifth time. However, he's unlikely to contribute a significant part and the chances are that he'll end up empty-handed. Spain face strong opposition that includes an impressive Italian squad fronted by world number one Jannik Sinner.

Nadal has already stated he's unlikely to play singles, but we may see a reunion of 'Nadalcaraz' in doubles alongside the new great Spanish talent Carlos Alcaraz. They paired together at Roland Garros and, although this combination of generational clay court masters was a tantalising prospect on paper, the reality was less successful.

The duo made it only as far as the quarter-finals before their dreams were dashed by a team of doubles specialists.

It feels as it did then that Nadal is seeking an emotional, storybook ending to his career. It's not impossible - if one rule is true in men's tennis it is not to write off Nadal - and although the Malaga home crowd will play their part, Spain are not my number one pick to win this tournament.

Heavy lifting for Alcaraz

This Spanish team has seen better days. Joining Nadal and Alcaraz are 36-year old Roberto Bautista Agut and the world's 42nd ranked player Pedro Martinez, while Marcel Gronollers can be called upon for doubles duty.

It is a drop in quality from the team's heyday when Nadal was at his peak and joined by the likes of David Ferrer (who captains the Spanish side this year), Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco.

Spain's hopes ultimately rise and fall on the shoulders of Carlos Alcaraz. There is no questioning that Alcaraz is capable of beating every opponent on any given day, but there are a few question marks hanging over him right now.

He struggled with illness last week and was eliminated in the group stage of the ATP Finals after defeats to Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud. Alcaraz's poor health couldn't have come at a worse moment, not only in terms of a direct result but also for developing his game on indoor courts.

While he is recognised as the undisputed best player in the world on natural surfaces, Alcaraz has yet to dominate on hard courts where he demonstrates his greatness only intermittently.

Furthermore, there is a huge gulf in quality between the level of Alcaraz and his teammates and he may have to take on a heavy schedule should Spain work their way to this final. Not only will he be required for singles duty, he may be expected to chip in as a doubles partner for Nadal.

With a flawed squad, the emotional baggage of carrying Nadal, and a heavy burden on a potentially unfit prodigy who has yet to consistently show his best on indoor courts, there are plenty of red flags to deter a 23/103.30 outright bet on Spain.

Spain should make final

Spain do have a good thing going for them in that their path to the final isn't difficult.

They have a tricky first encounter against the Netherlands, who pack upset potential in the form of indoor specialist Tallon Griekspoor and the mercurial Botic van de Zandschulp who upset Alcaraz at the US Open in straight sets. But you'd fancy Spain can find a couple of wins there to make the semi-final where they'll face the winner of the Germany versus Canada tie.

Germany and Canada have taken a hit in recent days with the withdrawal of key players Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime almost certainly blunting each nation's chances.

That tie could go either way, but with Serbia Open winner Denis Shapovalov in fine form the Canadian's are justifiable favourites. It is the final where I hold most concern for Spain.

Sinner on top of the world

Fresh off his triumph at the ATP Tour Finals, where the world number one confirmed his position at the top of his sport, he leads the market favourite Italian team 13/82.63 into battle looking to defend its title from 12 months ago.

It was only Italy's second ever Davis Cup win, but this is a golden generation of Italian players with rich depth and quality. In addition to Sinner, world numbers 17 and 32 respectively Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli offer singles support, as do top 10 doubles pairing Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori.

That neither Matteo Berrettini nor Matteo Arnaldi are required in Malaga signals a strength in depth that other teams must envy. Other than Berrettini the singles talents are all 23 or younger and it feels like a generation that should secure multiple Davis Cups.

The Italians have enough to get past an Argentinian side that is lacking in star power and with individuals such as Sebastian Baez and Francisco Cerundolo who do their best work on clay.

The defending champions do however face a tough assignment in the semi-finals which I will come on to shortly. However, with ace in the pack Sinner and a well-balanced and talented squad Italy are worthy outright favourites.

Strong American squad

The value to win the competition this year is with the USA. Much like Italy, the American team has a strong balance between singles stars and doubles specialists. World number four Taylor Fritz leads the pack, and is ably supported by the talented duo of Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton in singles. Olympic silver medalists Rajeev Ram and Austin Krajicek offer quality in doubles.

It is not only a balanced squad, but it is also versatile. And the singles talents each bring a specialist dynamic that can be set opposite specific match-ups. Fritz is a combination of serve and baseline steadiness, Paul enjoys longer rallies and expresses an all-court game, while Shelton is expected to be a Grand Slam contender before too long thanks to his huge lefty serve and forehand.

If they play their cards right, this American team can win it all.

The USA should prove too strong for a comparatively weaker Australia side to set up a clash with Italy. Outside of Sinner's contribution it is possible to see the USA pick up a couple of points.

This would set up a grand finale with Spain, where I fancy the winner of the Italy versus USA clash to have a strong chance.

The value to my eyes is on the Americans at 9/25.50.

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