Chile Open Tips: Delbonis a worthy favourite against Monteiro in Santiago

Novak Djokovic is in action again in Dubai on Wednesday and the Serb, as expected, gets the night match in the slower conditions that he likes.

He takes on Karen Khachanov, who battled his way past Alex De Minaur on Tuesday 7-5 in the third after failing to serve it out for a 2-0 win in the second set.

Djokovic, as you'd imagine, has a fine record against Khachanov, who struggles to redline his game for long enough to breach the defences of the world number one, and it's 6-1 overall in the career series to Djokovic at all levels.

And it was Djokovic that won here in Dubai in the 2020 quarter finals when he faced Khachanov, running out a comfortable 6-2, 6-2 victor, and the head-to-head stats show that Khachanov's big serve has been largely ineffective.

The head-to-head stats show that Khachanov's big serve has been largely ineffective

Khachanov has won only 60% of his first serve points (Djokovic has won 76% of his first serve points) and consequently Djokovic has created 0.85 break point chances per Khachanov service game.

Indeed, the only time Djokovic has ever dropped a set to Khachanov was when the Russian beat him in the 2018 Paris Masters final (Khachanov hasn't won a title since), so it's hard to be bullish about Khachanov's chances today.

Andy Murray will have appreciated the day off after another almost three-hour battle, this time against Christopher O'Connell, and the Scot takes a 1-0 career series lead into his clash with Jannik Sinner.

Murray stunned Sinner as a 3.711/4 chance in Stockholm last November, but Sinner was done for the year by then having just expended a lot of energy in Antwerp and Vienna.

Sinner was far from impressive against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Tuesday, with ADF holding a set and a break lead and having several match points in the second set tie break, but that match may be just what Sinner needed.

The 14:00 local time start should allow Sinner to use his power to good effect and it's pot luck these days as to which Murray will show up on the day.

Popyrin a touch short against Berankis

The one underdog I considered in Dubai was Ricardas Berankis, who was able to nullify (and comfortably at times) the big serve and forehand game of Jan-Lennard Struff on Tuesday.

He faces a similar type of opponent next in lucky loser Alexei Popyrin, who found Nikoloz Basilashvili on one of his non-go days in a tame effort on Tuesday.

Popyrin had lost seven of his previous eight matches until easing past a half-hearted Basilashvili and there isn't as much between this pair in terms of combined service points/return points won on hard courts at main level in the last year as the odds suggest.

Berankis has won only seven of his last 27 at main level as betting underdog

There's only four points in it, but what puts me off Berankis is that he's played for over seven hours already this week and he's not easy to win with as underdog.

The Lithuanian has won only seven of his last 27 at main level as betting underdog and he tends to be at his best on indoor hard.

McDonald a fair favourite against Krajinovic

Mackenzie McDonald was impressive in taking down defending Dubai champion Aslan Karatsev on Tuesday and he looks likely to back that up by beating Filip Krajinovic in round two.

Krajinovic was anything but impressive in edging past a physically impaired Malek Jaziri on Monday and I've long had the Serbian down as one who gets easily frustrated in windy conditions.

Jaziri was very much in that match until he suddenly called for the trainer mid-game at 4-4 in the third. He was barely able to move after that and seemed to have a hand problem as well, culminating in him trying an underarm serve at one point.

On hard courts this past 12 months at main level it's McDonald with the advantage: a 103 hold/break total (Krajinovic 96) and a service points/return points won total of 101 (Krajinovic 98).

In matches in the past year versus players currently ranked from 26-50 in the world, Krajinovic is 1-7 win/loss with a service points/return points total of 94 (McDonald is 5-10 and 100).

So, McDonald at around 1.654/6 looks about right, but not much in the way of value at those odds.

Delbonis a value favourite against Monteiro

We made a profit from our tie break bet in Thiago Monteiro's last match in Santiago against Nicolas Jarry and I wouldn't be surprised to see a breaker or two when he faces Federico Delbonis in this sort of altitude.

This battle of the lefties has featured a tie break on the last three occasions that this pair have clashed on clay and only one of that trio of matches was played at any altitude.

That was in Campinas back in 2018 and since then they've clashed in slow conditions in Belgrade and Barcelona.

Delbonis has won all four of their completed meetings, but Monteiro actually won seven more points and still lost in their Belgrade clash last May.

The head-to-head stats show that the Argentine has been pretty dominant, with Delbonis holding serve a huge 21% more often than Monteiro (82% of the time compared with 61% for Monteiro).

Delbonis has also broken serve 39% of the time against Monteiro, who's only broken serve 18% of the time and the combined service points/return points won stats don't make for better reading for the Brazilian.

Delbonis has won 64% of his service points and 44% of his return points against Monteiro (108 total) while Monteiro has won 56% on serve and 36% on return (92 total) so I'm struggling to find much to put me off backing Delbonis here at a price of 1.748/11.

Delbonis has saved a healthy 65% of the break chances against him in this match-up, but he's created 0.84 break chances per Monteiro service game while the Brazilian has created 0.53 per Delbonis service game.

Monteiro does have the advantage of having played one match in these conditions already, but Delbonis is no stranger to Santiago's altitude having made the semis here last year, and he played in the doubles on Tuesday evening.

Delbonis has been priced up between 1.341/3 and 1.511/2 in his last four meetings (including the one he withdrew from) with Monteiro, so this price seems more than reasonable with the stats of the career series in mind.

The scheduling of the match in the evening after forecast afternoon rain should mean that conditions are on the slower side for Santiago, which Delbonis will appreciate and that also puts me off backing tie breaks.

So, just one bet today and it's one point on Delbonis at 1.748/11.