Australian Open Day 5 Tip: Long game suits Rune against Berrettini

• Fonseca has arrived

• Berrettini favourite?

• Rune seems to enjoy match-up

• Completely FREE Bet when you place an Acca on the Australian Open

A star was born on Tuesday at the Australian Open as Joao Fonseca produced a stunning performance to eliminate Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

Readers of this column will have mixed feelings about that result having been on Fonseca to take the opening set, but coming nowhere close to landing the Rublev comeback win. The 18-year old out-hit Rublev from start to finish, who didn't even play all too bad for the most part and was asking Fonseca plenty of questions in set three.

The reaction to Fonseca's win has been instant as he will start his second round match against the capable Lorenzo Sonego a heavy 2/91.22 favourite.

Elsewhere on day three Emma Raducanu got her campaign off to a winning start against Ekaterina Alexandrova, while 2024 men's singles finalist Daniil Medvedev required five sets to defeat Kasidit Samrej.

On Thursday the match of the day is between former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini and the highly talented Holger Rune.

Rune leads head to head

I'm a little bit surprised to see Matteo Berrettini set as the favourite to win this match. The Italian is often highly respected by the betting markets due to the quality of his serve, which always shows up well in the data, and his high potential threshold when he's at his best.

He has struggled badly with injuries in recent years and despite leaving his fitness issues behind him in 2024 he did not accumulate enough ranking points to land a seeded berth at the Australian Open.

Berrettini has drawn 13th seeded Holger Rune, who I would argue has a different problem to his opponent in the eyes of odds compilers - he is somewhat underrated due to a perceived lack of form.

Rune is an exceptionally gifted player and no other top 15 player plies their trade quite like the Dane who mixes up his shots and is an expert at exploiting weaknesses in his opponent's level.

It is Rune who leads their head to head by two wins to one in completed matches. Berrettini won their first encounter when his opponent was still a teenager back in 2022 but both of Rune's wins came very recently.

Rune was a set down in their match in Cincinnati and Shanghai but he was able to turn the matches around. Their was no luck or fortune about these results, it appeared a decent match-up for the Dane.

Berrettini's hot starts can be explained by his sharp serving standards that is easy to replicate straight out of the blocks. Vice versa, it often takes Rune some time to warm-up as his game is on finding rhythm and understanding weaknesses in his opponent's game.

Rune showed against Berrettini in both of their 2024 meetings that he knows what buttons to press against the Italian whose backhand is well known to be his achilles heel.

Rune doesn't direct all the traffic to that wing but he will move his opponent around and target the weakness at appropriate times. Berrettini has not been able to hold up under Rune's scrutiny.

High on Rune

2024 did not go to plan for Holger Rune. After climbing to a career high number four the previous season it proved a struggle for the youngster to repeat his form the subsequent season but there is no doubting his high potential.

Towards the end of the year he was playing some better tennis and I have liked how he is performed at the start of the 2025 campaign.

Brisbane champion Jiri Lehecka swept past him at that tournament but there was no disgrace in that result, and other than when his mind wandered at the start of set two he was playing some good stuff.

Likewise in his opening round against Zhizhen Zhang I gained confidence in Rune's current level. Zhang is a nightmare first round draw who had shown a good level early this season. Zhang took a set off Alexander Zverev, and also thrashed Tiago Monteiro who was unfortunate not to upset Kei Nishikori in round one here.

I'm expecting a much improved and consistent campaign for Rune this season and I would not have him as an outsider against Berrettini on this surface.

Berrettini enjoyed a first win of the season against Cameron Norrie in the first round but there was more than meets the eye about this performance. Norrie was the better player for the first set and a half, but the Brit ran out of energy caused by a recent illness.

Life became easy for Berrettini whose serving stats look very good on the face of it - 32 Aces and 19 service holds. However, it must be accounted that this was not a fighting fit Norrie.

Also, Berrettini fell to defeat in his opening match of the season against Jordan Thompson, who is a not too dissimilar in style albeit a lesser version of Rune.

In terms of hard court ELO the most trusted database covering the sport reckons Rune is a far superior player on this surface, listed a whole 16 positions higher than his opponent.

How to bet this match

Although I am high on Rune's chances to win this tie, I do think the best value to back him will appear in play. After all Berrettini is a notoriously fast starter while Rune is anything but.

As a wager for the contest as a whole I see value in Rune's exchange price of 2.26/5 but it is quite likely this will expand in play as Rune takes time to find his feet and wrestle control of his opponent.

Now read Ultimate Guide to Australian Open 2025: Betting odds, schedule, how to watch