ATP Tour Tips: Dan Weston's preview of this week's three tournaments

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Cameron Norrie is fancied to go well in Buenos Aires this week

There are three tournaments on the ATP Tour this week on three different surfaces and multiple time zones as well, so there's plenty for bettors to get their teeth into. Dan Weston previews the week ahead...

  • Three ATP Tour Tournaments this week

  • Medvedev the star man in Rotterdam

  • Fritz a worthy favourite in Florida

  • Norrie worth chancing each-way in Buenos Aires


Top class field present in Rotterdam

Indoor hard again comes from Europe with the Rotterdam 500 attracting a quality field, as it usually does at this time of the year.

Five top ten players have entered, and there's also the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and last week's winner in Montpellier, Jannik Sinner to consider. We should be treated to some top class tennis this week in the Netherlands.

Historical data suggests that conditions at the Ahoy Arena are likely to be on the medium-slow side for indoor hard, with the service points won percentage and the aces per game count slightly below the ATP average for indoor hard courts.

There hasn't really been much in the way of trends when looking at previous winners and finalists, so I don't think there's much to read into in terms of potential conditions.

Medvedev the market favourite in the Netherlands

It's Medvedev who is a slight market favourite at 3/1 to pick up the title, with Stefanos Tsitsipasslightly further back at 4/1, ahead of Holger Rune at 8/1 who is the third and final player to be priced in single-digit pricing.

I'm surprised to see that Tsitsipas is so short-priced, given that he could face Sinner in round two in what would be the match of the round for sure.

Looking through the draw, Medvedev's chances in quarter three will initially be likely to be determined by a seeded quarter final against Felix Auger-Aliassime, and in my view, the second quarter looks by far the lowest quality.

Third-favourite Rune with a gift draw

The aforementioned Rune is favourite to get out of the bracket and his recent record indoors, driven by superb serve numbers - holding over 90% indoors in the last 12 months - is excellent. When you consider Rune's draw, it's obvious why the market makes him one of the main contenders for the title.

Also in that second quarter is Alexander Zverev, who seriously disappointed at the US Open after returning to the main tour from long-term injury.

His defeat to Marc-Andrea Huesler as a 1.351/3 favourite in the Davis Cup several weeks ago is hardly a positive for the German, but of course, he does have historical pedigree and his best level (which is far from a given) would test anyone in the field.


Big-servers likely to thrive at Delray Beach

The city of Delray Beach in Florida plays host to the outdoor hard tournament this week, with historical data suggesting conditions are likely to be medium-paced for the surface.

However, a look at the winners of the event over the last decade has something of a big-server dynamic surrounding it, with Reilly Opelka making two of the last three finals, and the likes of Sock, Querrey and Karlovic all title winners in the past as well.

Fritz justified favourite in home country

Four seeds have first round byes - Taylor Fritz, Denis Shapovalov, Miomir Kecmanovic and Tommy Paul - and top seed Fritz (10/3) has what looks like a very kind draw in the opening quarter, and in fact, the top half of the draw in entirety.

The American is running in excess of 106% combined service/return points won percentage on hard court in the last year - definitely top ten level - and he should be favourite over any opposition in the top half of the draw. The market agrees, making him a slight favourite over Paul (5/1)

Paul's journey could be tested by John Isner, who was runner-up in Dallas last week and who will create a high variance match at least, while there's a couple of young players in the draw with potential too.

I like the look of Ben Shelton, whose rise up the rankings has already propelled him to eighth seed in this event. However, all told, Fritz looks like a very justified favourite.


Clay-courters impress in Buenos Aires

Finally, the slow clay of Buenos Aires in Argentina is the focus for the clay-courters this week, with the last few events being dominated by clay-court specialists.

Diego Schwartzman (one title, two runners-up spots) and Casper Ruud (two titles in the last three years) have dominated proceedings in recent years.

Alcaraz odds-on despite injury comeback

Ruud will not be present to defend his title, but Schwartzman's chances of continuing his excellent run in his home country will be tested by having world number two Carlos Alcaraz in his half of the draw.

Despite not having played a main tour match since the Paris Masters last November (abdominal injury), Alcaraz has been chalked up as the odds-on 8/11 market favourite to lift the trophy on Sunday - his clay-court numbers are simply that good.

Norrie can battle through straightforward bracket

Given this, perhaps an each-way shot from the bottom half of the draw might yield dividends. Dominic Thiem, Lorenzo Musetti and Cameron Norrie look best-placed to make the final, and it's Norrie who possesses the best clay data over the last year, although Musetti has obvious upside.

Including exhibition events, Thiem has lost his last seven matches in a run stemming back to October last year, and he hasn't won a set in any of those encounters either, so any chances of him rolling back the years look low.

The Sportsbook is offering 11/1 on Norrie with each-way giving 1/3 of the odds, and backing the Brit each-way in a lop-sided field looks the best spot of this week.

Back Cameron Norrie each-way to win ATP Buenos Aires @

11/1

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Back Cameron Norrie each-way to win Buenos Aires @ 11/1

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