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Djokovic unbeaten in group stages
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Fritz needing his serve to fire
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Rublev lucky to qualify?
Djokovic heavy favourite to make Sunday's final
Following a dramatic final set tiebreak win over Daniil Medvedev yesterday, Novak Djokovic takes an unbeaten record into his semi-final with Taylor Fritz, which starts at 13:00 UK time on Saturday.
Rather unsurprisingly, given the tournament so far, and his superb level indoors this year, Djokovic is the heavy favourite to continue his progress in the event and is currently trading at 1.271/4 to get the better of Fritz, who has taken full advantage of Carlos Alcaraz's withdrawal to get to this stage.
Fritz yet to get the better of Djokovic
The duo have met five times before, with Djokovic winning all, last time a year ago in the Paris Masters indoors where Djokovic was a very similar pre-match price. They faced each other three times in 2021, and the data from these match-ups gives interesting insight into how the match might play out.
In the three clashes, there was a rather return-oriented dynamic with neither player winning more than 65% of service points.
Djokovic did have a rather sizeable edge though, with his return game having far more impact on the Fritz serve than vice versa. So, Fritz will need to serve lights out to resist the Djokovic return game, while somehow taking the few chances which come his way. You can see why the market lines are short on Djokovic, and that appears justified.
Ruud with the better tournament data
The second semi-final looks tougher to call with Andrey Rublev, who won his must-win clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas, a slight 1.774/5 favourite over Casper Ruud.
Last year the two players met in this event in the group stages, with Ruud picking up a tight three-set underdog victory - stemming a run of five consecutive losses to Rublev.
This year indoors, Ruud has better service numbers but a considerable disadvantage one return compared to Rublev, so it will be down to Rublev to put pressure on the Norwegian. One positive for Ruud is his serve data is far better than Rublev's in the tournament so far, and that Rublev has only won 47% of points in the three group matches - was he lucky to get through to this stage?
In truth, this, and Ruud's fairly small data sample size indoors is what puts me off looking at Rublev as some value here today. If I had to side with one player, it would be Rublev at market prices, and this should be an interesting match-up to see who, in likelihood, will face Djokovic in Sunday's final.