ATP Tour Finals Semi-Final Preview and Tip: Zverev to edge tight opener value at 16/5

• Sinner v Zverev final on the horizon

• Fritz will be competitive

• Value on Zverev to edge first set at 16/54.20

The world's top two ranked players Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev look likely to book their spot in Sunday's ATP Tour Final.

This duo brought their strong tour form into this showpiece event in Turin, and both have yet to drop a set en route the final four.

Sinner should have little trouble in overcoming Casper Ruud who progressed from the group stage as the long-odds outsider. They have not met since 2021, but Sinner has won both their previous encounters without dropping a set and he's an even better player since then.

The other semi-final between Zverev and Taylor Fritz could be more intriguing. I am pleased that both these players have made it to this stage having advised in my outright column that Zverev would win his group and that Fritz would reach the semi-final.

Zverev is imagined as an overly short 2/51.40 favourite against a player that leads their head to head and has won all three of their matches on faster tracks in 2024.

Zverev too short

I agree on current form and performance level that Zverev is a warranted favourite. The German rolled to a convincing title victory in Paris and has carried that confident level into Turin where he has won every match so far and has yet to drop serve.

However, current prices disrespect Fritz's chances.

Fritz has matched up well to Zverev this season in matches that have all been settled by fine margins.

Both guys go about their business in similar styles, serving big and consistently and doing their best to provoke a loose error or create a low-risk attacking opportunity in baseline rallies.

The Californian has been the steadier and stronger willed when it has mattered repeatedly this year and it is far from impossible that Fritz will execute this winning formula once again.

However, Zverev has been rock solid this week and is playing with a swagger. Fritz on the other hand has had notable dips in his level, with his form cracking a couple of times against Sinner and when conceding the opening set against Alex De Minaur.

There is no shame in either of these struggles.

Value in tight outcome

Conditions in Turin are ideal for servers. Zverev has yet to drop serve and won tiebreaks against both Alcaraz and Ruud.

Fritz has yet to play a tiebreak but he was unbroken against Daniil Medvedev, and showed reasonable serving form against Sinner and De Minaur who are two of the strongest returners on tour.

Across their matches this season Fritz and Zverev have played four tiebreak sets, and with both players having plenty of playing time under their belt on these pacy Turin courts, I fancy they will add another to their collection on Saturday.

I trust Zverev's form at the moment and I also expect he will be motivated to get the better of Fritz, who ended both his Wimbledon and US Open campaigns. Yet, 2/51.40 is much too short given the American's form in this contest.

There shouldn't be too much between them in the opening set and I can see a tiebreak on the cards. At 16/54.20 Zverev to win the opening set in a tiebreak holds appeal.

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