ATP Tour Finals Preview and Tip: Ruud can cover generous handicap at 4/5

• Alcaraz in trouble

• Everything falling into place for Zverev

• Confident Ruud can clear -4.5 game handicap

There was a shock result on day one in the John Newcombe group at the ATP Finals.

Carlos Alcaraz suffered an unexpected defeat at the hands of clay court specialist Casper Ruud.

Before the off it was anticipated the Spaniard would continue his rivalry with world number one Jannik Sinner at this showpiece event, but his hopes are hanging in the balance after a 6/1 7/5 defeat to the Norwegian.

Although he wasn't my number one pick to win this tournament it is fair to say that defeat to Ruud should be considered a significant upset. Pre-match Alcaraz was priced short of 1.11/10.

Alcaraz couldn't muster his usual quality, but we often forget that the wonderkid is only 21-years old and he hasn't developed the elite consistency and the shortcuts to find wins when his level is a little off the boil.

However, even more significant than that is the news that he is struggling with an illness. At Tuesday's practice he was only able to take to the court for 10 minutes before calling it a day citing difficulty with breathing.

It's a worrying sign for Alcaraz, yet despite that he is still priced confidently to defeat Andrey Rublev. The Russian leads Carlitos in their head to head and if his opponent is in as poor health as has been reported then Rublev has a good opportunity to get a win on the books.

Also, it should not be forgotten that Alcaraz has one eye on the Davis Cup Finals next week, where there is an emotional pressure on him to not only lead Spain's hopes of regaining the team cup but also to boost the chances of his sporting idol Rafa Nadal's career ending on a high. It would not surprise me if Alcaraz saves his health for Malaga.

That said, anyone who watched Rublev's tame performance against Alexander Zverev in the first round should be hesitant of backing Andrey with any great expectation.

Zverev steady as he goes

While it might be a touch unfair to suggest that Zverev's opening night victory was as a consequence of some Rublev underperformance, it should be noted that the deciding factors were that Rublev couldn't match the German's consistency in set one and then conceded a nervous break at the tailend of set two.

If anything, that speaks positively of Zverev's ultra-consistent approach to the sport. The two time ATP Finals champion prides himself on mastering the fundamentals and exploiting the inconsistencies of his opponents.

Zverev is in winning form and I would be surprised if that didn't continue against Ruud. He has won his last six matches, all of which have been against a strong calibre of opposition and there was no indication in the Rublev match to suggest his levels are suddenly set to dip.

Ruud has an unexpected opportunity

It is also unfair to fully credit Ruud's defeat of Alcaraz as purely the result of an underperformance from the reigning Wimbledon and French Open champion. Ruud played his part.

The Norwegian showed his game is in fine working order, striking his forehand with authority and confidently handling an opponent that remained dangerous even if he wasn't quite at his magnificent best.

Ruud is a unique commodity at the top end of modern men's tennis in that he does his best work almost exclusively on clay courts, living and dying by the health of his serve and forehand. He is a throwback to the clay court specialists that in the years prior to Nadal's dominance of the French Open used that exact skillset to reign supreme.

The clay court season is confined to a few months running the course of late spring and early summer and that is typically when Ruud does his best work. For the rest of the campaign he picks and chooses his battles, applying his physical and mental energy into the opportune moments.

He is far from consistent on harder surfaces, but he is capable. After all, this clay courter competed a US Open final no less in 2022.

Opponents are fully aware they can target his vulnerable backhand wing and eventually that will in all likelihood at this level result in a victory for the player with less telltale weaknesses such as Zverev.

Yet, Ruud should still give his opponent a good match.

Ruud is familiar with Zverev

Zverev is going to exploit those weaknesses over the course of a contest. That's what he does. But, Ruud is fully aware of how he should approach this match.

Conditions in Turin are slower than some of the recent indoor events that have been set at the quickest and hardest difficulty setting for Ruud. He showed against Alcaraz that he is confident and can do damage on courts that allows him to fire his forehand.

Zverev is prone to complacency and is often fairly accused of applying an overly negative and risk-averse approach to his tennis as he awaits his opponent to ultimately defeat themselves.

Ruud has won two of their last three matches, and was a set up against Zverev when they met at Roland Garros in June before illness took its toll on the Norwegian. He has a game plan that can challenge Zverev.

Zverev has been priced as a significant 2/131.15 favourite to win this match, which in all likelihood is indicative of the probable outcome.

However, the handicap has been set at -4.5 games which I feel is a touch on the high side and can be covered by Ruud. By contrast, Rublev has been awarded a -2.5 game handicap to beat Alcaraz.

Ruud's father Christian said of his son's current form, "I think the last weeks were quite fast, but I think here the courts feels good for him. He's been playing well here on fast court in the past. So it doesn't really matter faster, medium, but if he has a good feeling, it helps a lot."

Ruud has the form and motivation to fight with Zverev here, knowing that he has positive history with the German and that the door is slightly ajar for him to have a run in Turin.

At 4/51.80 to cover a -4.5 game handicap feels generous and I am happy to advise backing Ruud to push himself and Zverev here.

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