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Djokovic and Ruud straight-set winners on Saturday
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17 wins out of his last 18 indoors for Djokovic
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Ruud will need to take chances to have a chance
Djokovic again needing tiebreaks to win matches in Turin
Both of the semi-final winners, Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud, prevailed in straight sets albeit with rather contrasting set scorelines. Djokovic needed two tiebreaks to end the threat of Taylor Fritz, while Ruud eased past Andrey Rublev 6-2 6-4 in little over an hour.
Djokovic is a similar line to that semi-final against Fritz to win this match and therefore the title, trading at 1.282/7 on the Exchange at the time of writing. It's not all been plain sailing for the Serb, who is 4-1 in tiebreaks this event, and only against Rublev in the group stage did he manage to dominate opposition in his typical style.
Ruud needing to serve at an elite level
While it's fair to point this out, it's also fair to note that Djokovic is 17-1 in his last 18 matches - all played indoors - and has shown an imperious level in those encounters.
Furthermore, Djokovic did beat Ruud (4.47/2 to win tonight) here last season - priced a number of ticks shorter at 1.152/13, although the duo were priced similarly to here for Djokovic's straight-set win over Ruud in Rome, which was perhaps the most logical surface for the ability differential between the two players to be somewhat negated, despite the result.
Ruud has served very well so far, and indoors this year has won 73% of service points - hugely impressive numbers. However, Djokovic is 2% higher still on serve, with vastly different return numbers as well, so for me, if Ruud is to compete well in the final, his serve is going to have to be top-level, and then relying on a strategy of winning key points on return if and when they manifest themselves.
Djokovic's indoor data this year truly stunning
Considering Djokovic's stellar data indoors this year (115% combined service/return points won percentage), it's pretty tricky to see Ruud make a big impression here and obviously the market agrees.
He's done exceptionally well to get to this stage, but I'm concerned for his mediocre return game against Djokovic's strong serve, and I'd be surprised if Ruud created more than several break point chances throughout - he will have to take them in order to become a surprise winner on Sunday evening.