ATP Tokyo Tips: Majchrzak capable of pressing Kyrgios in quick conditions

Big names in action in Tokyo and Astana

Round two completes at the Japan Open and the Astana Open on Thursday, with plenty of star quality on display.

One of those stars is Nick Kyrgios and given that the weather conditions are set to remain rainy, the roof will be closed again on Thursday, which tempts me into a bet in his match against Kamil Majchrzak.

It looks very slick under the roof in Tokyo and even outdoors the players have been commenting on how fast it is.

After beating Steve Johnson on Wednesday, Denis Shapovalov said: "The courts are playing pretty quickly, so if you're putting a lot of first serves in, I think the percentage to win the point is really high here."

Indeed, after 15 main draw matches this week there were 84% holds of serve and 74% first serve points won - both figures comfortably higher than the outdoor hard court average on the tour in 2022.

Kyrgios, who came to Tokyo after his court hearing back in Australia last week, had things all his own way in round one, with far too much power for the outmatched Chun Hsin Tseng, but Majchrzak has more weaponry at his disposal.

Indeed, the Pole was very unlucky last week not to have beaten eventual Sofia champ Marc-Andrea Huesler, after holding match points in that one, and he has a strong enough serve and the power off the ground to make this close.

Much depends on what mood Kyrgios is in, of course, but I'm happy enough with the price on set one over 10.5 games of 3.6013/5, but it's probably worth taking the bigger price on a set one tie break.

Kyrgios has only played a 7-5 set 64 times in his main level career compared to 162 times he's played a tie break set, so if it gets to 5-5 it's more likely it'll go to a breaker.

That's a 4.57/2 chance and worth half a point, with Majchrzak having shown himself to be more than capable in quick conditions earlier in the season in a semi final run in Pune.

Short-priced trio look solid favourites

Elsewhere in Tokyo I'd expect Frances Tiafoe to have too much game on a court as lively as this one for Bernabe Zapata Miralles and similarly it's hard to make much of a case for either Denis Shapovalov or Taylor Fritz losing on Thursday.

Kecmanovic may have the edge against Evans

I was pleased with the start that Miomir Kecmanovic made on Wednesday, staying with it against Yoshihito Nishioka for long enough to make the latter run out of gas after his title win in Seoul.

Now, Kecmanovic has another tricky assignment, this time against Dan Evans, who Kecmanovic beat on clay at the French Open last season.

Clay isn't the best surface for either of these men and that result means little, but I still think that Kecmanovic could have too much left in his legs at this stage of the season than someone like Evans.

Kecmanovic has played two matches (five sets in total) fewer than Evans since the US Open and he hasn't done as much travelling as Evans and at this stage of the season that could be key.

It's a bit of a pick 'em and I won't be betting in it, but I'm hopeful of a win for the Serbian in that one.

Brandon Nakashima versus Borna Coric is another pick 'em match and I'm tempted to side with Nakashima on the basis that I don't really trust the stamina of Coric at the moment.

He's been talking about his shoulder problem and he said that he still has pain from it and he also said he was tired after his match against Thanasi Kokkinakis, but Nakashima has had plenty of matches lately, too.

That one could be a really tough battle given the style of play that the pair of them have and I'll stick with one bet in Tokyo on Thursday.

Cilic with the edge over Khachanov

Novak Djokovic has been talking about the conditions in Astana compared to those in Israel last week and said: "Tel Aviv was fast, so if you serve well, the ball skids through the court and you get a lot of free points. Here, it's not such a great asset. It's tough to penetrate the court. You have to use the tactics of clay, constructing the points. It's going to be much more physical."

And I think that it points to Marin Cilic over Karen Khachanov in another pick 'em match.

Cilic has had the better of this match-up over the course of the five-match series and he leads not only the series (3-2) but most of the stats that matter favour him, too.

Cilic has won more service points (by almost 3%), more return points (also by almost 3%) and he's created far more break chances per game (0.44 compared to 0.24 for Khachanov).

The Croatian has held serve 91% of the time against Khachanov (Khachanov 86% of the time) and had Cilic taken more than just 31% of his break chances he might have done even better in the series.

It seems to me that Khachanov is being favoured here based on his US Open semi final run, but that was in much quicker conditions than here in Astana and if we take out that New York performance and his Olympic final - both of which were played on quick surfaces - his record on slower surfaces isn't great.

The point construction that Djokovic talks about isn't for me a great strength of Khachanov and I'm happy to take Cilic as underdog here on the match-up and the slowish court here in Astana.

Cilic is a semi finalist at the French Open this year and if he can keep that forehand of his under control, I like his chances on Thursday.

So, two more half point bets on Thursday - Kyrgios set one tie break and Cilic to beat Khachanov.