ATP Tokyo Tips: Duckworth likely to be no pushover for Fritz

Top seeds already beaten in Tokyo and Astana

It was a pleasing day for our bets in Tokyo on Tuesday when we were able to enjoy a comfortable 3.211/5 winner when Soonwoo Kwon took the opening set against Alex De Minaur.

Indeed, Kwon went on to win the match in straight sets on a day when top seed Casper Ruud was also stunned by Jaume Munar in what was a lethargic display from the Norwegian.

Ruud looks to be paying the price for playing too much tennis lately and his and De Minaur's defeats have opened up the top half of the Japan Open draw.

Kecmanovic may be facing Nishioka at the right time

Hopefully my outright man Miomir Kemanovic can take advantage, but he's got a tricky one first up against Yoshihito Nishioka, who won the title in Seoul last week.

Nishi has been given as late a start as possible in his home tournament, but it may not be late enough, as he looked to be struggling with a shoulder problem in that Seoul final and he's sure to be feeling fatigued this week.

"I don't feel that much tired," Nishioka said on arrival in Tokyo. "I still have a problem a little bit in my shoulder, but that's no problem. My physio is here as well, so I hope he can fix it."

If it isn't a problem, what is there to fix, I wonder?

Kecmanovic should have no such problems after losing to Aleksandar Kovacevic in round one in Seoul, with the Serb likely to have had plenty of time to get a feel for conditions, either in Tokyo or Seoul this past week.

I'm on Kecmanovic outright, so I don't need to back him again here, and I prefer taking James Duckworth on the handicap against Taylor Fritz.

We don't know what sort of shape Fritz is in at the moment after he pulled out of Seoul last week citing illness and in any case the records of the players coming from Laver Cup isn't great so far, in this past week or two.

If Fritz is feeling under the weather, he'll probably be thinking back to the last time that he faced Duckworth and he had real health issue that day, saying after the match: "I'm okay...probably one of the weirdest things I've ever experienced... heart was going absolutely crazy for no reason."

That was in hot conditions on outdoor hard in Toronto last summer and Duckworth was priced up as a 3.39/4 underdog that day and he won against an admittedly struggling Fritz.

Now though, the price on Duckworth is 6.05/1, which seems much too big considering that we don't know the fitness of Fritz, and that we've seen plenty of the Laver Cup/Davis Cup players struggle in Asia.

Duckworth isn't going to hand this over to Fritz and right now he's on the comeback trail after injury put paid to the early season for him and he's been playing well in recent weeks.

He won't fear Fritz, having beaten him both times they've played, and it's not like Fritz is in prime form, with the American having lost four of his last six matches.

I wouldn't be surprised if Fritz loses this match, but the play I've taken here is the +3.5 games on Duckworth at 2.6313/8.

Value hard to come by in Astana

Moving on to Astana now and they lost their top seed on Tuesday as well when Carlos Alcaraz was equally as jaded looking as Casper Ruud in a straight sets defeat to lucky loser David Goffin.

I did find it quite telling that the Belgian journalist said after that win for Goffin that he was: "showing that he's still a very, very good player when on, confident and without pressure."

So, we've finally solved the riddle of Goffin's inexplicable peaks and troughs in form - he's got to be playing under no pressure, be feeling confident and in form."

I'll bear that in mind in future and it would be no surprise to anyone if Goffin lost next up to Adrian Mannarino (there'll be pressure though, so he's got no chance).

Conditions do look a little quicker in Astana than they were the previous two years, with the main draw currently running at 78% holds and 63.7% first serve points won, but that's still slower than the 2022 average on indoor hard.

The only one of the underdogs whose price may hold some appeal is Sofia champion Marc-Andrea Huesler, who may still be riding the wave of that title on Sunday and could carry that form on against the inconsistent Emil Ruusuvuori.

I'd be guessing a bit as to the fitness and energy levels of Huesler though and I'll pass, but it's about the only price that is of any interest in Astana on Wednesday.

So, just one half point bet for me on day three and that's on Duckworth on the handicap.