ATP Stuttgart Tips: Otte a hint of underdog value against Shapovalov

The rain managed to stay away for long enough on Tuesday for us to back a 5.509/2 winner when the expected tie breaks materialised in the match between Maxime Cressy and Dominic Stephan Stricker in Stuttgart (in the end all three sets went to breakers).

The forecast wasn't exactly accurate on Tuesday, but for what it's worth they're predicting showers/light rain in Stuttgart from around 3pm, so the early matches at the Boss Open on Wednesday should be fine to go ahead.

In Rosmalen on Wednesday, the forecast says it'll be light rain pretty much all day, so play looks likelier in Stuttgart on day three.

At the Boss Open on Wednesday, Oscar Otte is an interesting underdog against Denis Shapovalov and the German has a decent advantage here of having played a lengthy match already in this tournament.

It took Otte a couple of tie breaks to get past compatriot Daniel Altmaier on Monday, but he was a deserving winner there and his big game is likely to cause problems for Shapo, who doesn't break serve too often on grass.

So far at main level Shapo has broken just 15% of the time on this surface, so he needs to improve that part of his game on grass.

The hit and miss Canadian's run to the semi finals of Wimbledon last year came after another semi final showing at Queen's, but prior to that he'd struggled on grass and he's yet to start a grass swing impressively.

Only when he won in round one of Surbiton in 2017 against Yasataka Uchiyama has Shapo recorded a straight sets win in his first grass match of the season.

In 2018 he lost to Prajnesh Gunneswaran in Stuttgart, 2019 lost to Jan-Lennard Struff (also in Stuttgart) and in 2021 he dropped a set to Feli Lopez (Stuttgart), so he's not been one to trust straight off the bat on grass.

Otte has held serve 87% of the time on grass so far at main level (only played three matches though) and showed his ability on this surface back in 2018 when he made the final of the Ilkley Challenger and then he did well at Wimbledon last season.

He made the last-64 as a qualifier, beating Arthur Rinderknech in an epic five-setter and then falling in five sets to Andy Murray, so Otte can play on grass.

With both guys holding 87-88% of the time and breaking between 12 and 15% of the time and Shapo's propensity for long matches, the over games looks good here, but the line is set at 23.5, so I prefer the +1.5 sets on Otte here at 1.674/6.

On his best form, Lorenzo Sonego has a fair chance of going deep this week in Stuttgart, but he was a little fortunate to run into a Benoit Paire that was on one of his regular off days in round one.

Sonego had to dig deep at times in that match and now he faces Jan-Lennard Struff, who after several months out with a broken toe, should be keen to go well on home soil.

Struff also rode his luck a little (saved two match points) in round one, but he's another one that holds serve a lot but doesn't break serve enough on this surface and that may lead to over games in this match, too.

Both Sonego and Struff have held serve 86% of the time in their careers on grass, but Sonego has returned better, breaking 21% of the time, compared to just 12% for Struff.

So, the price of around 1.548/15 is about right on Sonego. Maybe a little short, but not enough to suggest any major value on Struff, who's going to have to recover from his first tough match in several months.

I wonder what sort of shape Matteo Berrettini is in this week after his almost three-month break due to a hand injury?

It would take a brave punter to take Berrettini on with Radu Albot on grass though, with the Italian holding massively bigger weapons and having beaten Albot pretty convincingly on clay at altitude in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel.

I wouldn't be shocked if Albot nicked a set here given Berrettini's likely rustiness, but I'm not sure I'd be prepared to bet on that outcome.

The price of around 1.330/100 on Berrettini tends to suggest there's a degree of uncertainty around the Italian, but if he's anything like fit he'll surely be too strong for Albot.

So, one bet from me on Wednesday and that's half a point on Otte +1.5 sets at 1.674/6.