ATP Stuttgart Tips: Can Lopez roll back the years against Bonzi?

Sean Calvert
05 June 2022

Lopez's serve and volley game remains effective on grass

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It's the start of the grass court season on the ATP tour this week and Sean Calvert is back to find the value at the Libema Open and the Boss Open...

"Even in just his most recent 10 matches on grass Lopez has held serve 85% of the time, winning 81% of his first serve points and hitting nearly one ace per game."

Grass court tennis is back and they kick off in Stuttgart at the Boss Open and at the Libema Open in Rosmalen, both tournaments being ATP 250s.

Stats suggest that conditions in Stuttgart are the quickest you'll find all year on the ATP Tour, with 85% holds of serve on average over the last five years at this tournament.

Only Queen's Club can equal that hold of serve mark, so expect a fair few tie breaks this week in Germany, with 52% of its matches since it moved to grass in 2015 featuring at least one breaker.

As far as underdog winners are concerned, 34% have won on average in the six editions so far.

In Rosmalen, conditions are usually a little slower and higher-bouncing than in Stuttgart and only 79% of the service games were held here in 2019, but the average holds over its last four editions is 82%.

It hasn't been played since 2019 due to a combination of coronavirus and the French Open being moved back a week, but it hasn't been a fabulous tournament for underdog backers, with only 28% winning in its last seven editions.

And looking at the weather forecast for the week at both venues, there's a lot of rain around in Stuttgart and Rosmalen for most of the tournaments.

Qualifying was interrupted by rain in Rosmalen on Sunday, meaning that's carried over into Monday, but the forecast doesn't look promising for Monday either, with an 80% chance of rain all day.

So, Stuttgart's matches look like they stand more of a chance of being completed, with some showers around early, but the afternoon looks fine.

Lopez still capable when motivated

Benjamin Bonzi Monte Carlo 2022.jpg

And the first match of the day could be one where the underdog stands a chance and that's veteran Spaniard Feli Lopez taking on Benjamin Bonzi.

Lopez has looked his age this year, with the 40-year-old failing to win a single match this season, but some of that is down to an elbow injury and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a far better Lopez this grass swing than we have in 2022 so far.

He showed what he can still do when he's up for it when he beat Andrey Rublev as a 7.3 chance at home in Madrid in Davis Cup as recently as November and surely if you're Lopez and this is your last season you'd be focusing on the grass swing.

That's been by far his best surface over the years and even in just his most recent 10 matches on grass he's held serve 85% of the time, winning 81% of his first serve points and hitting nearly one ace per game.

With a wild card here this week and on slick, early season grass, I can see Lopez causing a lot of problems for someone like Bonzi, who hasn't played that many times on grass and has never faced any of the big servers in my database on this surface.

Lopez will need to serve well, but I like the 2.757/4 about him winning set one.

Elsewhere, Oscar Otte has had some decent results on grass and should be better suited to it than Daniel Altmaier, who's likely to be rushed in these quick conditions, but Jan-Lennard Struff may be able to do something on his return from injury.

A broken toe has kept Struff out of action since Miami, but if he's fit on his return to action he might be too powerful for Marcos Giron, who beat Struff in Halle last year immediately after Struff had stunned top seed Daniil Medvedev in round one.

It's risky though and of the other matches Benoit Paire doesn't have a fabulous record on grass, but he pops up now and again and makes semis on this surface, as he did in Stuttgart in 2017, so he can't be ruled out against Lorenzo Sonego.

Sonego has won 11 of his last 15 matches on grass and could well go deep in Stuttgart this week if he can get past Paire, which he should do.

Finally, Radu Albot has won his last two matches against Joao Sousa, one of them on grass, and having played two matches already this grass swing he might fancy this.

At the time of writing prices aren't out for that match, but I'd be tempted by Albot as underdog in that one.