ATP Seoul Tips: Nishioka good value to get the better of Evans again

We started the week with an early void in Seoul when Yosuke Watanuki landed awkwardly and painfully on his ankle and was forced to retire after only three games against Jaume Munar.

With conditions still rather unknown in Tel Aviv and Sofia's slow conditions usually leading to wins for the betting favourites I'm happy to take my chances in Seoul for the most part at the moment.

After day one it's apparent that they're playing with Dunlop AO balls, which are obviously the same ones used at the Australian Open and they're usually pretty quick to start with before they fluff up a bit.

And that leads me to have a bet in the first match of Tuesday in Seoul on Court 13, where lucky loser Ryan Pensiton is facing qualifier Nicolas Jarry.

The outside courts are usually quicker and it's set to be around 26C with barely any wind, so good conditions for serving and hopefully those AO balls will zip through nicely.

That being the case, Jarry's strong serve should be tough to return for the Brit, who gets into the main draw after losing to Tung-Lin Wu in qualies.

Jarry showed the sort of serving I'm looking for from him in qualies when he went unbroken in 19 service games, hitting just over one ace per game, and we know that his return game is poor.

In Jarry's last nine main level matches on outdoor hard he's broken serve only 11% of the time...

In Jarry's last nine main level matches on outdoor hard he's broken serve only 11% of the time, playing 0.33 tie breaks per set and he's barely played any left-handers at main level on hard courts in his career.

He's faced a lefty just twice on hard at this level and both matches involved tie breaks: versus Mischa Zverev in quick conditions in Shanghai and Cam Norrie on slow hard in Miami.

This will be Peniston's first career match on any hard court at main level, so Jarry won't have seen much of him and it should be quick enough for Peniston to use his all-court game effectively.

The side markets are still being priced at the time of writing, but I'd expect over 12.5 games in set one to be at least 3.02/1 or bigger, so I'll take that for half a point.

Nishioka underdog value again versus jaded Evans

The second bet I like today is to take Yoshihito Nishioka to inflict another defeat on Dan Evans, having won all five of their career matches so far.

Evans must be tired, having come from Davis Cup in Europe to California and now Seoul in only 10 days, so he'll surely be jetlagged and fatigued having made semis in San Diego and played there only four days ago.

Nishioka has been priced up as underdog every single time against Evans and won all five, holding serve 83% of the time compared with a career average on hard courts of 73% at main level.

Evans has only held serve 68% of the time and won 42% of his second serve points against Nishioka, who's had the Brit's number so far, and you'd think Nishi would be the one better prepared and with more energy than Evans in what'll probably be a physical contest.

Still, the layers have gone with Evans as favourite, so I'm more than happy to back Nishioka at 2.226/5.

Tseng an underdog option against O'Connell

Another player that's making the 13-hour flight from LA to Seoul is Christopher O'Connell, who played well last week in San Diego, making the semis the same as Evans, and like Evans he's facing a motivated round one opponent here.

Chun Hsin Tseng has had some good results on the clay at Challenger level this year and he's beaten last year's Wimbledon quarter finalist Marton Fucsovics on hard recently, plus he's actually ranked 17 spots higher than O'Connell in the rankings, so this is a winnable match for Tseng.

Tseng needs to improve his serve, which is a bit of a weakness at this level, but I don't mind having half a point on him to beat O'Connell on energy levels at 2.77/4.

So, three bets for Tuesday in Seoul: one point on Nishioka, half a point on Tseng and half a point on the set one overs in Jarry/Peniston.