ATP Montreal Tournament Preview: Medvedev the man to beat in Canada

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Daniil Medvedev is favourite to back up his Los Cabos title...

"It does look like Medvedev's tournament to lose and I'd envisage his outright price dropping markedly should he get past Kyrgios in round two."

ATP Montreal starts on Monday, with this being the first major warm-up event ahead of the US Open. Dan Weston returns to preview the event...

Quick conditions expected in Montreal

Action starts in Canada at 17:00 UK time, although the eight seeds with first round byes aren't going to get their tournaments underway until probably Wednesday. Based on historical data, conditions are likely to be pretty fast-paced, with service points won, service hold percentage and aces per game counts above the ATP Tour hard court average. This could lead itself to some spots in the tiebreak markets as the tournament progresses too.

Medvedev facing tough test from Kyrgios

These conditions are likely to be right up the street of the top seed and tournament favourite, Daniil Medvedev. He will be grateful for a few days rest after winning in Los Cabos last week, although hardly exerted himself by winning all four matches in straight sets.

After several final defeats of late, this title will have pleased Medvedev, and he looks the very obvious pre-tournament favourite at a current 3.711/4 - it's probably only the threat of Nick Kyrgios in round two which makes me think that this isn't a generous line.

Medvedev and Kyrgios, plus the likes of Denis Shapovalov, Alex De Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz headline quarter one, which could have been easier for the tournament favourite - with an easier draw I could easily have seen him trading at below 3.02/1 in advance of a ball being hit.

Several big servers featuring in quarter three

Q2 looks wide open, with Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime the seeded players. The duo are likely to be tested by some very competent opposition, including Roberto Bautista-Agut, Jenson Brooksby and the Los Cabos runner-up Cameron Norrie. It wouldn't surprise me at all if one of the unseeded players in this bracket progressed to the semi-finals at least.

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Jannik Sinner get byes in the third bracket which also looks pretty competitive. Matteo Berrettini (who should like the quick conditions - his serve will be tough to break) as well as another big server Maxime Cressy should ensure that there are some high variance spots in this quarter and a potential Tsitsipas/Cressy round three match could be one of those tiebreak opportunities which I mentioned earlier.

Alcaraz the other player in single digit pricing

Finally, Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz lead the field in quarter four, which also includes Andy Murray who has taken a wild card to feature. An opening round match against Taylor Fritz is one of the more difficult round one matches for the Scotsman, and he'll start pre-match underdog against the American.

Alcaraz is the only other player in single digit pre-match pricing at 6.05/1 but I'm unconvinced about his chances in pretty quick conditions.

Of the players without a first round bye, Berrettini should have chances in these conditions at 19.537/2, although he does have a tricky opener against Pablo Carreno-Busta. However, it does look like Medvedev's tournament to lose and I'd envisage his outright price dropping markedly should he get past Kyrgios in round two.

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