ATP Metz Tips: Veteran Simon could have enough to test unreliable Goffin

It was a great US Open for my bets, with plenty of big-priced winners in what was a really pleasing fortnight in New York, and now it's back to the bread and butter of the ATP Tour.

After a week off for some and Davis Cup duty for others, the players head to Metz, France for the Moselle Open and to California, USA for the San Diego Open.

The Moselle Open is played on indoor hard on a Slamcourt surface that didn't appear to be as fast in 2021 as in previous editions, but it still produced 81% holds of serve and 48% tie break matches.

Last year, losing finalist, Pablo Carreno Busta described it as "not a fast, fast indoor court," and the last eight editions have averaged 81% holds and 46% tie break matches.

In terms of underdog winners, it's very average at 32% over the last eight editions, and round one alone has averaged 36% dog winners in those eight years.

San Diego was given a one-year license in 2021 and it continues in 2022 to cover for the ongoing lack of Chinese tournaments on the calendar.

They play on what looked a medium-slow Laykold surface at the Barnes Tennis Center and it's one year on the tour saw just 22% of the matches feature a tie break and there were 79% holds of serve.

The finalists were Casper Ruud and Cam Norrie, which also suggests it was on the slower side, but it was played two weeks later in the year (last week September/first week October) in 2021 and it should be warmer and sunnier this time.

As far as underdog winners are concerned, there were only 30% in 2021 and if you'd backed every underdog in the tournament to a £10 stake, you'd be down by around £90.

Day one's results saw wins for favourites Lorenzo Sonego and Seb Korda in Metz, while all four favourites won in San Diego on Monday, so we didn't miss anything of much value.

Simon may get inspired by last-ever week in Metz

Tuesday's card in Metz has four more round one matches and the one that appeals, but not massively on a tricky-looking day, is to take a chance on veteran Gilles Simon in some way against David Goffin.

Goffin will be very pleased to have won two of his three Davis Cup matches indoors last week, but it wasn't overly impressive - he had to save match points against Oscar Otte after a heavy defeat by Alex De Minaur.

On all recent form you would expect Goffin to beat the French veteran Gilles Simon, but we saw at the French Open that Simon can still cause major problems for top players when he's up for it.

That week in his last French Open he took down Pablo Carreno Busta at a massive price and then backed it up by beating Steve Johnson before Marin Cilic was too strong for an exhausted Simon.

Gillou is retiring at the end of this season and this week will be one of his last opportunities at main level and it's a tournament that he'll have great memories of, having contested the final here on three occasions.

Goffin has lost all of the last five ATP Tour/Grand Slam matches in which he was priced up as favourite

He doesn't seem to have the motivation for Challengers, but I'd expect a decent showing from him here in Metz in what will be one of his last main level tournaments of his career and Goffin is not exactly reliable as a favourite.

The inconsistent Belgian has lost all of the last five ATP Tour/Grand Slam matches in which he was priced up as favourite and he lost to Simon at a very similar price to today in the Shanghai Masters back in 2017.

I'd expect Simon to start on the front foot here and 3.185/40 about him winning set one looks worthy of a small interest for half a point.

Elsewhere in Metz, you'd expect Arthur Rinderknech to beat Jaume Munar indoors, but I'd want a slightly bigger price than 1.594/7, and Emil Ruusuvuori should be beating Jiri Lehecka, however the price on the Finn is also too short for me.

Mikael Ymer doesn't tempt me as underdog either, while Nikoloz Basilashvili's performance levels are total guesswork at the moment.

Value thin on the ground in San Diego

Over in San Diego, qualifier Emilio Nava is a possible underdog option against Taro Daniel, who hasn't beaten anyone ranked better than 299th in the world since July.

Indeed, Nava beat Daniel in very similar conditions in Winston-Salem less than a month ago in a hard fought three set battle in which both men scored the same number of points.

Nava was priced up as a 3.1654/25 chance that day, so I'm not seeing much value in him at 2.265/4 today.

None of the other San Diego underdogs appeal greatly either, although Christopher Eubanks is plenty short enough at 1.444/9 against Mitchell Krueger, with Eubanks priced up as a 1.8810/11 last year against the same opponent at this tournament.

So, for me, on a tough-looking day for value seekers, I'll chance Simon to start well against Goffin.