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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">ATP Metz Tips: Rinderknech too short against Basilashvili</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/sean-calvert/">Sean Calvert</a></li> <li><time datetime="2022-09-22">22 September 2022</time></li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "ATP Metz Tips: Rinderknech too short against Basilashvili", "name": "ATP Metz Tips: Rinderknech too short against Basilashvili", "description": "Round two of the Moselle Open and the San Diego Open is the order of the day on the ATP Tour on Thursday and Sean Calvert returns with his best bets...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/tennis-tips/atp-metz-tips-rinderknech-too-short-against-basilashvili-210922-169.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/tennis-tips/atp-metz-tips-rinderknech-too-short-against-basilashvili-210922-169.html", "datePublished": "2022-09-22T07:19:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2022-09-22T11:24:00+01:00", "articleBody": "Round two of the Moselle Open and the San Diego Open is the order of the day on the ATP Tour on Thursday and Sean Calvert returns with his best bets... The high seeds are in action in Metz and San Diego on Thursday, but the main interest for me lies away from the matches involving the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Hubert Hurkacz. We profited by backing Gilles Simon against David Goffin the other day and again in round two the layers don't seem to have much faith in the veteran Frenchman. Gillou was very good against a sub-par (again) Goffin and now he has another winnable match in his sights against another inconsistent sort in Lorenzo Sonego. Similarly to Goffin, Sonego has a poor recent record when priced up as favourite on the ATP Tour and in majors, losing five of his last seven such matches. He snapped a three-match losing streak in the career series against Aslan Karatsev in round one of Metz this week, but if you'd backed Sonego in the 18 main level matches in his career in the price range of [1.20] to [1.39] you'd be out of pocket. A £10 bet on Sonego in all 18 of those matches would see you down to the tune of £32.37 as he's won 11 of those 18 matches and only three of the last six. Simon is more than savvy enough to know how to frustrate Sonego by forcing him on to his backhand and giving him plenty of variety to deal with on that weaker side and I'm happy to take Gillou again on Thursday. The veteran won't go away easily in one of his last-ever career tournaments and at home in Metz, where he's had a lot of success in the past, he'll be very much up for the fight here. I like the +3.5 games on Simon, but in these tricky post-US Open weeks I'll mainly play half point bets and that's all I'll do with this one at around the [1.84] mark. Basilashvili a tempting price against Rinderknech Another short-priced favourite that doesn't look exactly a cert is Arthur Rinderknech, who, like his round two opponent Nikoloz Basilashvili, got a little lucky (Basil got very lucky) in round one. Rinderknech was 4-1 down in the decider against Jaume Munar and needed a bit of a choke from the Spaniard to progress. Basilashvili only made it to round two because of an unfortunate injury to Zizou Bergs, who was a set and a break up when he broke down, allowing Basil a free pass to round two and his first 'win' since Wimbledon. That might be the bit of luck that changes Basil's mood and that being the case he's more than capable of beating Rinderknech as their two career meetings have shown. Basil won both in straight sets - in Doha this year in the semis and on grass in Halle last season - and the stats of those two matches don't make for great reading for Rinderknech. Basilashvili has held serve 95% of the time against Rinderknech (although Basil has saved a big 88% of the break points against him) and has a combined service points won/return points won total of 117. Rinderknech has held serve just 63% of the time (despite hitting almost one ace per game) and has a combined service points won/return points won total of 83. Based purely on the head-to-head stats, Basilashvili should be a strong favourite here, but Basil is in one of his regular slumps at the moment and we're guessing as to when he's going to come out of it. At these odds in this match-up, though, I'm happy to chance Basil for half a point. Local boy Nakashima likely to progress On his day Denis Kudla could conceivably take down Brandon Nakashima, as Kudla did at his home tournament in Washington DC last season when Nakashima was a [1.36] favourite, which is roughly the price Nakashima is again this time. The problem for prospective Kudla backers is that Nakashima won their next meeting (in Delray Beach this season) 6-1, 6-1 and this time Nakashima is the local player, a San Diego boy who should be highly motivated to go well this week. He struggled past Zachary Svajda in round one though and maybe he's feeling the pressure of playing at home and being expected to go very close to winning the title. Nakashima does have a solid 16-3 win/loss mark on the main tour when priced up as shorter than [1.4] though, so I think I'll leave Kudla this time. Evans no certainty to defeat durable Daniel Dan Evans is another favourite that doesn't look that secure to me in what will be a test against an opponent that doesn't give much away for free in Taro Daniel. You have to earn your wins against Daniel, who's beaten Evans twice in their four-match career series, and I wonder if Evans is really up for it this week after Davis Cup and a long journey to get here? It's been a while since this pair have clashed, with the most recent one being back in 2019 at the Phoenix Challenger when Daniel won as a [3.41] shot and given that he's had one match already in San Diego this week he's not without a chance here. Much depends on the attitude of Evans here, as it may be the case that as top seed he'll fancy his chances of winning a second main level career title, but we're guessing a bit on that. So, two small bets today: Simon +3.5 and Basilashvili to win. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Sean Calvert", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/sean_calvert" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Arthur Rinderknech AO 2022.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Arthur Rinderknech – Australian Open"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Rinderknech has been no match for Basilashvili in their previous meetings</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-metz-2022/basilashvili-v-rinderknech-betting-31764969" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-metz-2022/basilashvili-v-rinderknech-betting-31764969">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=ATP%20Metz%20Tips%3A%20Rinderknech%20too%20short%20against%20Basilashvili&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Ftennis-tips%2Fatp-metz-tips-rinderknech-too-short-against-basilashvili-210922-169.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span 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best bets...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__quote"> <blockquote><p>"Rinderknech has held serve just 63% of the time against Basilashvili (despite hitting almost one ace per game) and has a combined service points won/return points won total of 83."</p></blockquote> </div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <p>The high seeds are in action in Metz and San Diego on Thursday, but the main interest for me lies away from the matches involving the likes of <strong>Daniil Medvedev</strong> and <strong>Hubert Hurkacz</strong>. <p>We profited by backing <strong>Gilles Simon</strong> against <strong>David Goffin</strong> the other day and again in round two the layers don't seem to have much faith in the veteran Frenchman.</p><p>Gillou was very good against a sub-par (again) Goffin and now he has another winnable match in his sights against another inconsistent sort in <strong>Lorenzo Sonego</strong>.</p><p>Similarly to Goffin, Sonego has a poor recent record when priced up as favourite on the ATP Tour and in majors, losing five of his last seven such matches.</p><p>He snapped a three-match losing streak in the career series against Aslan Karatsev in round one of Metz this week, but if you'd backed Sonego in the 18 main level matches in his career in the price range of <b class="inline_odds" title="1/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.20</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/5</span></b> to <b class="inline_odds" title="2/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.39</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/5</span></b> you'd be out of pocket.</p><p>A £10 bet on Sonego in all 18 of those matches would see you down to the tune of £32.37 as he's won 11 of those 18 matches and only three of the last six. </p><p>Simon is more than savvy enough to know how to frustrate Sonego by forcing him on to his backhand and giving him plenty of variety to deal with on that weaker side and I'm happy to take Gillou again on Thursday.</p><p>The veteran won't go away easily in one of his last-ever career tournaments and at home in Metz, where he's had a lot of success in the past, he'll be very much up for the fight here.</p><p>I like the +3.5 games on Simon, but in these tricky post-US Open weeks I'll mainly play half point bets and that's all I'll do with this one at around the <b class="inline_odds" title="5/6"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.84</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/6</span></b> mark. </p><p><strong><h2>Basilashvili a tempting price against Rinderknech</h2></strong></p><p><img alt="Nikoloz Basilashvili Halle 2022.jpg" src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Nikoloz%20Basilashvili%20Halle%202022.600x338.jpg" width="1280" height="720" class="mt-image-center" style="text-align: center; display: block; margin: 0 auto 20px;" loading="lazy"></p><p>Another short-priced favourite that doesn't look exactly a cert is <strong>Arthur Rinderknech</strong>, who, like his round two opponent <strong>Nikoloz Basilashvili</strong>, got a little lucky (Basil got very lucky) in round one.</p><p>Rinderknech was 4-1 down in the decider against <strong>Jaume Munar</strong> and needed a bit of a choke from the Spaniard to progress.</p><p>Basilashvili only made it to round two because of an unfortunate injury to <strong>Zizou Bergs</strong>, who was a set and a break up when he broke down, allowing Basil a free pass to round two and his first 'win' since Wimbledon.</p><p>That might be the bit of luck that changes Basil's mood and that being the case he's more than capable of beating Rinderknech as their two career meetings have shown.</p><p>Basil won both in straight sets - in Doha this year in the semis and on grass in Halle last season - and the stats of those two matches don't make for great reading for Rinderknech.</p><p>Basilashvili has held serve 95% of the time against Rinderknech (although Basil has saved a big 88% of the break points against him) and has a combined service points won/return points won total of 117.</p><p>Rinderknech has held serve just 63% of the time (despite hitting almost one ace per game) and has a combined service points won/return points won total of 83.</p><p>Based purely on the head-to-head stats, Basilashvili should be a strong favourite here, but Basil is in one of his regular slumps at the moment and we're guessing as to when he's going to come out of it.</p><p>At these odds in this match-up, though, I'm happy to chance Basil for half a point. </p><p><strong><h2>Local boy Nakashima likely to progress</h2></strong></p><p>On his day Denis Kudla could conceivably take down Brandon Nakashima, as Kudla did at his home tournament in Washington DC last season when Nakashima was a <b class="inline_odds" title="4/11"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.36</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/11</span></b> favourite, which is roughly the price Nakashima is again this time.</p><p>The problem for prospective Kudla backers is that Nakashima won their next meeting (in Delray Beach this season) 6-1, 6-1 and this time Nakashima is the local player, a San Diego boy who should be highly motivated to go well this week.</p><p>He struggled past Zachary Svajda in round one though and maybe he's feeling the pressure of playing at home and being expected to go very close to winning the title.</p><p>Nakashima does have a solid 16-3 win/loss mark on the main tour when priced up as shorter than <b class="inline_odds" title="2/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.4</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/5</span></b> though, so I think I'll leave Kudla this time.</p><p><strong><h2>Evans no certainty to defeat durable Daniel</h2></strong></p><p><strong>Dan Evans</strong> is another favourite that doesn't look that secure to me in what will be a test against an opponent that doesn't give much away for free in <strong>Taro Daniel</strong>.</p><p>You have to earn your wins against Daniel, who's beaten Evans twice in their four-match career series, and I wonder if Evans is really up for it this week after Davis Cup and a long journey to get here?</p><p>It's been a while since this pair have clashed, with the most recent one being back in 2019 at the Phoenix Challenger when Daniel won as a 3.41 shot and given that he's had one match already in San Diego this week he's not without a chance here.</p><p>Much depends on the attitude of Evans here, as it may be the case that as top seed he'll fancy his chances of winning a second main level career title, but we're guessing a bit on that.</p><p>So, two small bets today: Simon +3.5 and Basilashvili to win. </p></p> </div> </div> <div class="recommended_bets betslip_goto auto_banners" data-banner_cta="Join"> <h3>Recommended bets</h3> <div class="editor editor--reversed"> <p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-metz-2022/basilashvili-v-rinderknech-betting-31764969">Back Basilashvili to beat Rinderknech @ <b class="inline_odds" title="5/2"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.5</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/2</span></b></a><br> <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-metz-2022/sonego-v-g-simon-betting-31765173">Back Simon +3.5 games to beat Sonego @ <b class="inline_odds" title="5/6"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.84</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/6</span></b></a></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2>Sean Calvert's Betting.Betfair P&L 2022</h2> <p>Staked: 98.17 points<br> Returned: 108.82 points<br> Profit: + 10.65 points</p> </div> </section> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div class="description "> 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