ATP Halle Tips: Tie breaks expected when Kyrgios and Tsitsipas clash

It was two winners from three bets again on Tuesday in Halle and Queen's and once more my +1.5 sets pick (in this case Ryan Peniston) ended up winning in straight sets.

The sun is set to shine at both venues on Wednesday, so there should be no problems with the weather.

Statistically, round two of Queen's Club has been the round where most underdog winners have been found, but it's still very mediocre at 33% and there was only one of eight successful in 2021's second round.

It's a quite similar story in Halle, with 31% underdogs winning on average in round two in the last eight editions of the tournament.

The three matches that stand out to me in terms of likely tie breaks are the ones involving Nick Kyrgios and Stefanos Tsitsipas and Ugo Humbert and Hubert Hurkacz in Halle and between Marin Cilic and Alexander Bublik at Queen's.

Assuming that Kyrgios doesn't go off the rails again he looks to have a great chance against Tsitsipas in a match-up that (at main level) has produced a whopping 0.67 tie breaks per set on hard courts.

Both men have held serve 94% of the time in their two main level meetings and Kyrgios has been particularly ineffective on return, produced just 0.11 break point chances per game (Tsitsipas poor as well on 0.28).

So, on grass, with Kyrgios holding serve 90% of the time in his main level career on this surface and Tsitsipas 87% of the time and the Australian breaking 12% of the time and the Greek 13% of the time, tie breaks seem pretty likely.

I rarely relish taking short prices when Kyrgios is involved, but 3.55/2 about there being over 1.5 tie breaks in this match seems fair enough on a day where not many big-priced wagers appeal.

I'm not of a mind to chance Alexander Bublik and Kyrgios on the same day, but there's a fair chance that Bublik (on a good day) can stay close to Marin Cilic on a warm, sunny day on grass at Queen's Club.

You just never know with Bublik though - he might decide that he can't be bothered, in which case Cilic will probably win at a canter.

Hubert Hurkacz managed to play three sets against Maxime Cressy on slick grass in Halle without any of them being a tie break, which was annoying on Tuesday, but there's a fair chance that he'll make up for that against Ugo Humbert.

It's a first career meeting between this pair and with both men holding serve 88% of the time in their main level careers on grass and Humbert desperate to keep his winning run in Halle going, I'd expect a tight match here.

If anything, the grass numbers point to Humbert, with the Frenchman's surface data a tiny bit better than the Pole's at the moment.

Hurkacz has a combined service points won/return points won total of 101.7 (Humbert 102) and a hold/break total of 101.8 (Humbert 105.1).

If anything, the grass numbers point to Humbert, with the Frenchman's surface data a tiny bit better than the Pole's at the moment

It's Humbert that's created slightly the more break opportunities (0.48 per game compared to 0.43 per game for Hurkacz) and while there's little in it I'm far from convinced that Hurkacz should be as short as 1.4640/85 to win.

The Pole does have a great record against left-handers of 16-4 win/loss at main level, but he's yet to face one on grass.

Hurkacz rarely does things the easy way and his roundabout route to victory over Cressy on Tuesday was a case in point and in the last 12 months against top-50 ranked opposition (such as Humbert) he's only won 31% of the time in straight sets.

And in best-of-three-set matches versus top-50 ranked opponents in the last year Hurkacz has only won eight times in straight sets in 29 matches (28%).

So, either the straight win on Humbert at 2.89/5 or the set handicap (although 1.574/7 isn't the most appealing of prices) are options here, but as I'm already on Humbert outright I'll take the over 2.5 sets here at odds-against at 2.26/5.

Limited betting appeal at Queen's Club

Moving on to Queen's Club and their card for Wednesday doesn't appeal much from a betting perspective.

Alex De Minaur should be defeating Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on grass, but I doubt it will be straightforward for the Aussie, with ADF likely to put up some decent resistance.

I would also expect Grigor Dimitrov to beat Botic van de Zandschulp on this surface, with the big Dutchman appearing to be far from a natural mover on the grass.

Jack Draper and Emil Ruusuvuori has the feel of a possible three-setter about it, with Ruusuvuori in particular prone to matches like the one he played on Tuesday against Quentin Halys, where he should have won in two, but went to three instead.

Draper was probably a little flattered by the scoreline of his win over a less-than-fit Taylor Fritz in round one and he looks plenty short enough against Ruusuvuori here to me at 1.728/11.

So, just two wagers on Wednesday on what looks a tricky day, and it's half a point on over 1.5 tie breaks in Kyrgios v Tsitsipas and one point on over 2.5 sets in Humbert v Hurkacz.