ATP Florence Tips: Fucsovics a tempting underdog against Otte

Our week in Florence and Gijon got off to a nice start on Monday with a 3.8014/5 winner courtesy of Jeff Wolf's 2-1 win over Italian wild card Francesco Maestrelli.

Going on what I saw in Florence on Monday I'd say that my initial estimate of conditions at the Firenze Open was pretty much correct - it looks like a reasonably paced surface.

Roberto Carballes Baena didn't agree, however, saying after his win over what was either an injured, sick or tanking Daniel Elahi Galan: "The court is hard court but it's a little bit slow."

This is after he'd just won 93% of his first serve points and yet he went on: "I didn't play with the first serve, but I think I played very good behind second serve, very aggressive."

So, he thinks it's slow and that he didn't play with his first serve after winning pretty much all of his first serve points. His career average on indoor hard at main level is 67% first serve points won, so I'm not sure RCB has got that quite right.

The stats and the evidence of Monday's play suggests it's anything but slow and that being the case I'm happy to back Tim Van Rijthoven as underdog against Mikael Ymer in the battle of the qualifiers on Tuesday.

The Dutchman has struggled with a back injury since he burst onto the main level scene during the grass swing, but his serve was in fine shape in qualies at the weekend.

The opposition wasn't the greatest, but Van Rijthoven sent down 34 aces (1.58 per game) and won 86% of his first serve points, holding serve 100% of the time, and winning a whopping 80% of his service points.

Ymer is a player that relies on his strong return game and in qualies Ymer only won 66% of his service points, so in conditions that appear to be on the quicker side I prefer the strong serving game of Van Rijthoven for half a point at 2.245/4

My second bet today - and these are only half point bets at this stage of the season - is to take a chance on the fitness of Marton Fucsovics against Oscar Otte.

This pair have had similar seasons, with both playing well in the early stages of the year, but each man then got injured during the grass swing and they've struggled since then.

Fucsovics's luck was particularly bad in the sense that he was playing well on the grass in Stuttgart when he picked up a back injury that kept him out of action completely for a couple of months during which time he lost his Wimbledon ranking points from 2021.

Of course, he wouldn't have been able to defend those points even if he'd have played, but to go from looking good on the grass and ranked just outside the top-50 to being number 91 when he next played must have stung.

He's been back playing for a couple of months now, but he hasn't looked fully fit, although his results in Challengers don't really mean much for me, as he's often been a player that plays his best stuff in the bigger tournaments.

Otte succumbed to a knee injury at the end of the grass swing and underwent surgery for a medial meniscus problem in mid-July, returning to the tour at the US Open at the end of August.

He's been unable to repeat the sort of form that saw in make the semis in Halle, though, with eight defeats from nine matches, with the one win coming against world number 314 Dragos Nicolae Madaras.

The lively conditions should suit both men, but with Fucsovics desperate for ranking points (as he's currently too low to get into many main draws at tour level) it may well be the Hungarian that wants it that bit more right now and half a point on him at 2.186/5 is my bet in this one.

Elsewhere in Florence on Tuesday it's hard to see Lorenzo Sonego slipping up at home against Bernabe Zapata Miralles, who Sonego beat two weeks ago in Sofia indoors and against whom Sonego is 4-0 head-to-head.

I'd also expect Alexander Bublik to have too much for Cristian Garin in these conditions, but Bublik probably won't have the same motivation as Sonego is likely to have this week, having played his home tournament last week.

David Goffin is another one that I wouldn't be backing at odds-on this week (or ever) given his ups and downs and because he's at home next week in Antwerp, but his opponent Francesco Passaro's best win away from clay (he's never played on indoor hard) on ranking is number 515.

Finally, I'm also not sure about Brandon Nakashima at this late stage of the season, with the American looking pretty tired last week in Tokyo when he was beaten rather comfortably in the end by Borna Coric.

Nakashima put a lot into his home tournament in San Diego a few weeks ago and he definitely looked below par against Coric, so this might be a chance for veteran Richard Gasquet.

It'll be a first career meeting between the pair and while Nakashima leads the combined service points won/return points won totals (main level) for 2022 by 103 to 100 Nakashima might be a touch short at 1.4840/85.

Gasquet flopped as a 1.091/11 chance last week against Jurgen Briand in the Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger though and he's a hard player to judge at this very late stage of his career, so I'll pass on that match.

So, two bets on Tuesday in Florence, both half point win wagers.