- Top seeds in action in Gijon and Florence on Thursday
- Stats suggest that FAA is too short to win in straight sets
- Sean Calvert is laying FAA to win 2-0
Number one seeds begin in Gijon and Florence
The top seeds start their campaigns at the Firenze Open and the Gijon Open, with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Andrey Rublev both facing tricky-looking opening matches on Thursday.
Auger-Aliassime is a notoriously slow starter in tournaments and his record shows that he's won only 35 of his 90 completed opening round matches in straight sets at main level (which equates to around 39% of them).
Versus top-100 ranked opposition in his opening match at main level he's won 26 of 71 in straight sets, which equates to 37%.
Therefore, his odds of beating a top-100 opponent in Oscar Otte in his opening match in Florence, based on what he's done in his main level career so far, should be somewhere around the 2.77/4 mark.
The odds we're being offered on FAA beating Otte 2-0 are around 1.774/5, so I'm happy to lay the Canadian to win 2-0 at that price on the Exchange (or back Otte to win a set if you're using the Sportsbook) for one point.
It's always tough to gauge the form of FAA, who's only reached four main level semi finals this season and none since February, and if we compare his 2022 stats on all surfaces to those of Otte there isn't that much in it.
FAA's service hold/break total is 104 (Otte 102) and his combined service points won/return points won total is also 104 (Otte 100), so he's ahead, but not by as much as a 1.261/4 favourite should be.
And Otte's stats would surely have been better than they are had he not had to undergo knee surgery in the summer, since which time he's struggled to regain his good form from earlier in the season.
I was happy to take Otte on as favourite against Marton Fucsovics earlier in the week, but the odds for this match look much too short on Auger-Aliassime, so I'm the Otte camp this time.
Big-name Italians struggling in Florence
Bernabe Zapata Miralles scored a big upset over one Italian in the opening round when he beat Lorenzo Sonego and now he faces another one, Lorenzo Musetti.
BZM's win over Sonego was rather unexpected given that he was 0-4 against Sonego, who'd beaten the Spaniard only two weeks prior on indoor hard in Sofia, but it seems like Sonego failed to handle the pressure of playing at home in a match he was expected to win - as did Matteo Berrettini.
The same fate might befall Musetti, who's playing his opening match of the tournament, but there are no real grounds, other than possible nerves, for Musetti to lose this one.
He's beaten BZM in both of their career meetings and as well as Zapata Miralles played against Sonego it's a lot to expect him to do it again in conditions he's never shown any liking for in the past.
Indeed, that win over Sonego was BZM's first ever win at main level on indoor hard, but he has played well at Challenger level indoors, so I wouldn't be rushing to back Musetti at around 1.51/2.
Brandon Nakashima played very well indeed against Richard Gasquet on Tuesday and should be progressing to the quarter finals at the expense of qualifier Altug Celikbilek, while Mackenzie McDonald also has a good chance of progressing on Thursday.
Ivashka needs improvement against Rublev
In Gijon, top seed Andrey Rublev plays his opening match of the week and it's perhaps not the easiest of starts for the Russian against Ilya Ivashka.
Rublev has beaten Ivashka twice in similarly slow indoor conditions in St. Petersburg (2019 and 2021) and there's not much in the stats of those two matches that would have me rushing to back Ivashka here at around the same price that he was in those two matches in Russia.
At first glance it's a dominant set of numbers in favour of Rublev, but Ivashka would have made the matches closer if he'd taken substantially more than just two of the 16 break point chances that he created.
Ivashka only won 32% of his second serve points in those two matches - perhaps partly because in one of the matches he hit a huge 16 double faults - so if Ivashka cleans up his game and takes more chances he might spring a surprise.
I'd want it quicker than it appears to be in Gijon (Manuel Guinard said: "I prefer clay, but this hard court is pretty good. Quite slow.) for Ivashka and if I were betting this match the 2-1 to Rublev holds some appeal at 4.131/10.
I'd expect (although nothing is certain at this stage of the season) Andy Murray and Francisco Cerundolo to win their matches, but Seb Korda versus Roberto Bautista Agut looks interesting.
Korda is a tough opening match for Bautista Agut and the American played well in his opener on Wednesday, plus he beat RBA in straight sets in their only prior career meeting, which was on grass last summer.
Korda was priced up as a 3.14107/50 chance when he beat RBA in that Halle match and given how often Korda has failed to show up in big matches this season I'm not sure I like the price of around even money against an RBA playing at home.
Wednesday's results - notably Roberto Carballes Baena beating Berrettini from a set down - show how tricky this period is in the season and I'm happy to just take one bet again on Thursday that I see some value in.