ATP Finals Tips: De Minaur can deepen Medvedev's woes at 21/20

• Sinner vulnerable?

• Medvedev meltdown

• Disciplined De Minaur can win at 21/202.05

The first day of play at the ATP Finals in Turin caused plenty of talking points.

Tournament favourite Jannik Sinner kicked off his campaign with a comfortable, yet not entirely convincing win over Alex De Minaur.

The Italian's relentless hitting got him over the finishing line but there was variance in his level throughout, including a nervy start in which he dropped his opening service game. Perhaps most worryingly was that Sinner was grabbing his abdomen late in the second set suggesting he might not be fully fit.

Players enjoy a day off between the round robin matches, so perhaps Sinner has time on his side to manage his physical condition. It is something to keep an eye on.

Medvedev: "zero pleasure"

In the other Sunday clash, Daniil Medvedev got off to a shocking start, suffering a complete meltdown to giftwrap victory for Taylor Fritz.

Medvedev was struggling badly on serve from the start, but had been holding his own in the rallies through the first nine games. When serving to stay in the set the Russian hit three consecutive double faults to hand Fritz the opener.

Daniil didn't recover, and Fritz just had to keep the car on the road to get the win which he did successfully.

Before the event Medvedev stated that he was arriving in Turin with a lack of form, confidence and condition. After the loss to Fritz he went further stating, "Every practice is a struggle. Every match is a struggle. Now I feel zero pleasure of being on the court. So no surprise at all about the match today."

He also suggested that although he feels he's at a great disadvantage right now he will still compete the final two matches with a belief that he can win if he is in better shape or if he has some luck.

His comments hardly inspire confidence.

The end of the season can't come quickly enough for Medvedev and it would take a leap of faith to back him as favourite to win against De Minaur. This is clearly not the world number four at his competitive best.

De Minaur's positive attitude

In contrast, being at the ATP Tour Finals is a huge deal for Alex De Minaur.

This is the first season he has qualified for the year end championships, and it is unlikely that a guy who never goes down without a fight in any match is considering that he is only here to make up the numbers.

After his competitive defeat to Sinner he is projecting optimism, which is an entirely different tune to his wounded opponent on Tuesday.

De Minaur said, "I always rate my chances [of progressing out of the group]. I think the way I see it is that Jannik was the only player in the group who I hadn't had a win against. The rest of the players I've had some success against. Now I'm not playing the No. 1 in the world anymore, I'll be looking forward to that."

Not the worst match-up for De Minaur

As De Minaur suggests in his comments, Medvedev is not the worst match-up for him.

Neither player possesses the strongest serve - De Minaur is shorter and less powerful in stature than other players at the top end of the game, while six foot six Medvedev is struggling with an ongoing shoulder complaint - and both do their best work proving wall-like resistance in the rallies.

Medvedev leads the head to head by six wins to three, although three of these were when he was planted more concretely at the top of the rankings. Since 2022, and De Minaur's emergence as a player, they are tied together at three wins apiece. The Australian won their only match this season at Roland Garros.

The match will be decided by who outworks the other off the ground and you would have to give the edge to De Minaur in discipline and confidence right now.

Data also supports De Minaur's chances.

In the past 52 weeks both players have won a similar percentage of service points won. De Minaur has won 64.6% compared to Medvedev's 64.1%.

However, it is on return where De Minaur's advantage is more clear. There is no player on tour that has won more return points that De Minaur this year. He has won 42.7% of return points, and although Medvedev's total is also strong at 40%, it is only enough for seventh position.

When considering data, motivation and confidence there are many signs pointing positively towards a De Minaur win and I think he is good value at 21/202.05.

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