ATP Finals Preview and Tip: Back comfortable Zverev win at Evens

• Conditions suit strong servers

• Rublev needs a holiday

• Zverev -1.5 sets good value at Evens

Conditions in Paris look ideal for a player like Alexander Zverev.

On the first day of play in Turin the importance of a strong and reliable serve, and controlled groundstrokes was exemplified in the Daniil Medvedev versus Taylor Fritz encounter.

Medvedev was struggling badly to win quick and easy points on serve, and with that important element short of its best it gave the big Russian far too much work to do to get through his service games.

Fritz on the other hand was serving powerfully and accurately to set up what became a very comfortable victory for the American.

Most of the top men's players have a rather simple and obvious formula to win their matches - they must serve effectively and look to be the more solid off the ground.

Players don't want to be in the position of taking too much risk in the rallies to shortcut their way to win points, rather using consistency and depth of shot in order to win the territorial battle. The one notable exception at the top end of the sport is Carlos Alcaraz who tends to blend much more creativity, variety and risk into his game than is the norm.

Zverev and Rublev pursue the popular formula approach to their tennis. Yet, across the 2024 season it is Zverev who has been the substantially better player.

Contrasting campaigns for Zverev and Rublev

Zverev has enjoyed a strong 2024 campaign. This year he reached a second major final at Roland Garros and collected Masters titles in both Rome and Paris.

For his efforts the German is ranked second for the season, which is testament for his consistency considering he is parked ahead of Alcaraz who won two Grand Slams this year.

Zverev's form had dipped in the second half of the year due to a bout of pneumonia, but he looked fresh and back in-form at just the right time when he won Paris a few weeks ago without breaking sweat.

Rublev on the otherhand started the campaign with a respectable quarter-final run at the Australian Open, and was able to win a Masters title in Madrid, and to compete for another by reaching the final in Montreal.

Yet, it would be fair to say this has not been a successful season for the Russian.

In previous seasons he made at least two Grand Slam quarterfinals and was usually competing for titles across the year. That hasn't happened this year and at times it looks as if Rublev would rather be anywhere else than on a tennis court.

There have been numerous instances this season where Rublev has had temperamental breakdowns on court, and he also revealed ongoing issues with depression and burnout.

The Muscovite has played a packed schedule, and although he typically enters a tournament most weeks and accumulated enough points to finish as the eighth highest player in the ATP race to qualify him for Turin, he only has the 21st match win percentage on the tour, which seems a reasonable indicator of his actual performance levels this season.

It was also a mad scramble for Rublev to qualify for Turin and he was only able to register his participation in the final week, having been unable to produce a strong run in Beijing, Shanghai, Stockholm, Basel or Paris.

Across those events he lost five times as a pre-match market favourite including at heavy odds-on prices against Bo Yunchaokete, Jakub Mensik, Stan Wawrinka and Francisco Cerundolo.

Zverev by comparison has the fourth highest win percentage behind Sinner, Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.

Zverev data edge

It is not the only data metric where you can identify a clear advantage for Zverev.

As stated previously Rublev and Zverev apply a similar serve and steadiness approach to their tennis.

Across the past 52 weeks, Zverev is rated higher than Rublev in terms of service points won, service points won excluding Aces, percentage of first serve points won and percentage of second serve points won.

They have not met this season but Zverev leads the head to head by six wins to three. Rublev admits this will not be easy saying, I have a long history with Sascha. He beat me a lot of times over the years, I beat him a couple times last year. It's going to be interesting. It's going to be a great challenge for me."

All signs point to this being a comfortable victory for Zverev and there is value on the German winning in straight sets.

Back Alexander Zverev with a -1.5 set handicap at 1/12.00.

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