ATP Finals Outright Preview and Tip: 6/4 Sinner the player to beat in Turin

• Sinner looks strong

• In-form Fritz can qualify

• Zverev can beat Alcaraz under roof

It has been a season of change in men's tennis. The reign of the big three appears to be over with Novak Djokovic the last remaining legend that will compete the 2025 season.

The domination of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Djokovic has been ended by two men - Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

This golden duo has shared the sport's biggest prices over the course of the season. Sinner won the two hard court majors, while Alcaraz was successful at both the French Open and Wimbledon.

At the season ending championships in Turin, the market expects Sinner and Alcaraz to resume their rivalry.

Sinner's soft group

It is difficult to see past Sinner emerging the winner of the 'Ilie Nastase Group', named in honour of the Romanian champion that collected four ATP Tour Finals titles in the early 1970s.

Conditions look perfect for Sinner, whose game is amplified by the indoor conditions. According to the Italian he finds the playing surface to be slower than the previous year. Slowing down the court plays further into his hands, as he is the proven best player on the planet on a neutral hard court.

Sinner has been drawn together with Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur. The Italian has enjoyed his recent matches against both Medvedev and Fritz, while he possesses a perfect seven nil record against de Minaur.

His opponents do no sound confident of their chances. Fritz said of Sinner, "I would say the most impressive thing is that he hasn't played a bad match. He's just been really solid all year."

Medvedev said, "You need to play an inch-perfect match to beat him," while de Minaur stated, "It doesn't get any harder than starting against Jannik."

Sinner made the final here last year, losing to Djokovic. But this year it his turn to be the class act and I think he is good value to win the whole thing.

6/42.50 for the best hard court player on the planet in perfect conditions to win this title is generous.

Fritz value to qualify

If Sinner topping the group sounds likely, there is less certainty about who will join him.

Daniil Medvedev is the second highest seed in the group, but the Russian has failed to win a title this year and despite being consistent over the course of the year he looks a long way off challenging Sinner or Alcaraz.

His confidence is low, having stated he didn't know what to do to defeat Sinner in their last match. He has also been bothered throughout this campaign by a shoulder injury and there has been a noticeable drop in the serving quality of the six foot six Muscovite.

All in all, I am happy to oppose Medvedev. I admire his ability to find new tactical solutions and it will be interesting to see if he can rebuild his level next season.

In the meantime, I think there is a prime opportunity for either Fritz or De Minaur to take advantage, and I fancy the American to be that player.

Fritz has recharged his batteries over recent weeks after a strong August and September campaign in which he made a first major final in New York, before showing another impressive run in Shanghai. This is the best form of the Californian's career.

He has a losing record against De Minaur, but I have been unenthused by the Australian's recent level. He expended a lot of effort to qualify during the recent indoor swing, and couldn't qualify under his own steam, requiring Djokovic's withdrawal from the tournament to reach Turin.

De Minaur is capable of good tennis. At his best he is a nightmare to play, a wall that is impossible to break down. But injuries have impacted his season and he has not been performing at his highest level in recent months.

The value is on Taylor Fritz to qualify from the Ilie Nastase group at 7/52.40.

In-form Zverev proven in conditions

The second ATP Finals group is named after Australian John Newcombe who won eight major singles titles in the 1960s and 1970s.

It is likely to be a shoot-out between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz, with little expected of either Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev.

Although Alcaraz has won two Grand Slams this year it is actually Zverev who is higher ranked. The German has been consistent over the course of the season whilst Alcaraz has had some phenomenal highs. Alcaraz is to my eyes the player with the highest ability on tour, but he is not showing that level week in, week out.

Zverev arrives in Turin in fine form. He was a dominant winner at the Masters event in Paris, where he outclassed quality opposition without breaking much of a sweat.

He had been struggling in recent months due to a drop in form and a bout of pneumonia, but the downturn has done him some good and he looks a danger here.

Zverev has stated that this group stage format suits him. He believes he plays his best tennis at the biggest events such as Grand Slams. However, he often finds himself drawn into long drawn out five setters in early rounds that reduces his batteries come the final stages. There are no physically draining five setters for him to worry about here.

Alcaraz was unplayable this summer as he triumphed on the natural surfaces. Yet, the Spaniard has been inconsistent since then.

He showed his quality when defeating Sinner en route to winning a 500 event in Beijing in September, but he backed that up with a quarter-final exit to Tomas Machac in Shanghai and an early loss to Ugo Humbert in Paris.

The Spaniard stated he has a lot of motivation to win in Turin and suggested he has altered his preparation for this year's edition having felt he did not perform his best last year.

Of course, if he can rediscover that best version of himself he is going to be tough to beat, but his recent form and his long-term record suggests he still has to find the answer to playing his best stuff indoors.

Zverev beat Alcaraz in Turin last year, and he also beat him in quicker conditions at the start of the season in Australia, before two losses at Indian Wells and the French Open.

I believe that being indoors favours Zverev and that he is good value to win this group ahead of Alcaraz at 17/102.70.

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