ATP Estoril Tips: Dellien looks the wrong favourite against Gasquet in Portugal

Sean Calvert
28 April 2022

Sean Calvert feels that Gasquet is overpriced to beat Dellien in Estoril

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Round two completes at the BMW Open Munich and the Estoril Open on Thursday and Sean Calvert likes the look of two underdogs on day four...

"Dellien has won only 15 of his 40 main level clay matches in his career (38% win rate) and he’s not been beyond round two of any main level European tournament since making the last eight in Geneva in 2019."

After the first three days of the BMW Open in Munich only one seed remains in the top half of the draw and that man is Reilly Opelka.

Opelka won in Houston on the 'clay' a few weeks ago, but conditions are very different on American fast-dry clay in the relative warmth of Texas compared to the damp European clay in Munich.

Opelka has a very sketchy record in ATP 250s and 500s in Europe, with a career record of just six wins and 13 losses from his 19 such matches and on clay alone he's 1-4 win/loss.

The big American is one of a long line of US-based players that have struggled with either motivation or simply homesickness when playing lower level events outside of North America and that shows not only in the stats above, but also in the fact that the vast majority of his finals have been in North American events.

Opelka has a very sketchy record in ATP 250s and 500s in Europe, with a career record of just six wins and 13 losses from his 19 such matches and on clay alone he's 1-4 win/loss.

Indeed, 11 of Opelka's 12 finals at Challenger and ATP level have come in tournaments held in North America and all six of his main level title matches have been played there (as a comparison, 26 of John Isner's 30 career finals at main level have also come in US tournaments).

So, it's fair to question what sort of commitment we're going to get from Opelka here and to add to the mix there's the 500m of altitude in Munich, too, so he'll have to be ready for that.

Oscar Otte Munich 2022.jpg

His opponent, Oscar Otte, should be ready, having had one match under his belt here already (an easy round one win over qualifier Marko Topo) and a nice run in Belgrade last week when he made the quarter finals.

Opelka's clay stats look decent, but they're a little misleading, because they're made up largely of those matches played at home in Houston and matches played in Rome at Masters level when he made the semi finals last season.

On current form and with a less-than-spirited effort quite likely from Opelka I don't mind taking him on here with Otte, who beat Aslan Karatsev and Alejandro Tabilo last week in that Belgrade run, and Otte at 2.747/4 for half a point is the bet there.

Gasquet can roll back the years against Dellien

The second bet that I'll take on today is to back veteran Frenchman Richard Gasquet to beat Hugo Dellien, whose best results almost always come at Challenger level.

Dellien has been playing very well in Challengers lately, winning the title in Santiago and finishing runner-up in Concepcion, but the average rank of his opponents in those two events was 197.

The Bolivian doesn't really have the weapons to be a force at main level, which shows in his record.

In the past 12 months on clay at main level Dellien has won just four of his 11 matches (36% win rate) and his service hold/break total is 92, while his service points won/return points won total is 97.

He's won only 15 of his 40 main level clay matches in his career (38% win rate) and he's not been beyond round two of any main level European tournament since making the last eight in Geneva in 2019.

Those numbers aren't what you want from a 1.68/13 favourite against a player who still has the quality to be an occasional force at this level.

Hugo Dellien French Open.jpg

Only last July, Gasquet made the final on clay in Umag and with him these days it's largely about assessing his fitness.

The Gasman was in great form in beating Tommy Paul in round one and it only took him an hour-and-a-half, so he should have some energy left for today after a day's rest.

The stats favour Gasquet, too, with a hold/break total of 97 and a service points won/return total of 99, with a win percentage of 60% (12-8 win/loss) at main level on clay this past 12 months, so he's ahead of Dellien there.

Gasquet also has good memories of Estoril from when he won the title here and clearly enjoyed himself against Paul: "I won here seven years ago. I love playing here, it is always a pleasure to play here," Gasquet said after that match.

So, I'm happy with the price of 2.407/5 on Gasquet and I think that's worth a one point wager.

Elsewhere in Estoril, most of the prices look about right, with Sebastian Baez slight favourite over Marin Cilic, who's a difficult player to predict on the clay, and Seb Korda a decent favourite to beat Benjamin Bonzi, but what about Felix Auger-Aliassime?

FAA faces a quick rematch of his three-set win last week over Carlos Taberner and his price is pretty much the same this week as last.

That day, FAA got bogged down a bit by the damp, slow conditions in a rainy week in Barcelona and by his own unforced error count, but even taking that into account, Taberner only won six points on his second serve all match (26%).

There shouldn't be any rain to bother Felix this time, but it is meant to get very windy this evening in Estoril, so that could be a factor (as it could for the Korda/Bonzi match) and it could well test the patience of the Canadian.

Assuming he handles that, I haven't seen enough from Taberner to suggest he's a likely winner of this match, but a set is within his reach if the conditions are tricky.

So, for me the best value of the day lies with Gasquet for one point, and I'll take on Opelka for half a point with Otte.