ATP Bastad Tips: Durable Coria can challenge rusty Rublev

Due to the difference in time zones and the way that this week's tournaments have been scheduled, it's only possible for me to look at the matches in Bastad at the Nordea Open today.

But as ever in Bastad there are plenty of possibilities for upsets, starting with number two seed Andrey Rublev, who could be vulnerable against Federico Coria.

A lack of match practice is one factor in the thinking here, with Rublev's last match coming on grass in Halle a month ago and he's only played that one match since the French Open on June 1.

He's spent at least some of the time practicing with Dominic Thiem since then, but as Thiem will attest, there's no substitute for matches.

And Rublev has never played this tournament so far in his career (he did play the Challenger here in 2016) so he won't be used to the slow, blustery conditions as much as Coria, who made the final here a year ago and has played one match already this week.

Indeed, Coria started really poorly against Federico Delbonis in round one, getting bageled in the opener before coming through in three sets, and the Argentine will fancy his chances in conditions he clearly enjoys.

The slow surface in Bastad makes it hard to hit through Coria and that's precisely what Rublev will try to do, but it's a big ask to expect him to come out after a month off and play well enough to beat Coria in straight sets.

Coria's stats on clay at main level in the past 12 months are decent: a 102 combined service points won/return points won total and a 102 hold/break total, while Rublev is ahead on 106 and 109.

So, on paper Rublev should win, but in these circumstances, he may have to go long to do it and laying Rublev 2-0 at 1.8810/11 looks the play here or backing the 2-1 to Rublev for a bigger price at 4.3100/30.

Huesler play style may be tricky for Djere

If I was to pick a tournament least suited to serve and volley tennis it would probably be Bastad, with slow conditions and a tricky wind making that style rather difficult, but Marc-Andrea Huesler managed it against Holger Rune.

The Swiss lefty deprived Rune of rhythm and that might work equally as well against Laslo Djere, who plies his trade almost exclusively from the back of the court and likes a steady rhythm.

I'm sure he will have watched that Rune v Huesler match and he should be ready for it, but whether Djere will be able to combat it remains to be seen.

Huesler will probably get a wild card into Gstaad at home next week, but if he beats Djere and wins the match after that he wouldn't need one, so there's some possible motivation for Huesler here.

He's already beaten Rune and Fabio Fognini this week (and the hapless Leo Borg) and held serve 88% of the time in the process, so I wouldn't rule an upset out here.

Dominic Thiem will be pleased to have finally recorded a win at main level - the victory over Emil Ruusuvuori in round one being his first at this level since the 2021 Rome Masters - but it was handed to him by the nervy Ruusuvuori double faulting.

Struggling Thiem still far away from his best

If Thiem is unable to hit his forehand any better than this in the coming weeks and months then his career at the top level of men's tennis is over, but that remains to be seen.

For now, the chances of him beating a fully fit Roberto Bautista Agut are slim, but is RBA fit?

The Spaniard has had a stop/start campaign in 2022, with first a wrist injury and then Covid hampering his progress this season, with RBA last seen on the match court on June 28 at Wimbledon before he had to withdraw.

RBA does have a good record against Thiem (4-1 at main level) but most were some time ago and not relevant at all to this 2022 match.

I'd expect Bautista Agut to win this based on Thiem's current level, but the slow conditions won't favour RBA (he's only played Bastad once and it was 10 years ago) and I couldn't back him at 1.501/2.

Baez with a slight edge over Davidovich Fokina

Finally, one where the prices look about right is the clash between my outright hope in Bastad, Sebastian Baez, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

I had a look at the 2022 clay stats of this pair before the tournament and Baez is slightly ahead, which, combined with his greater consistency, made me take Baez as my outright.

I just felt that Davidovich Fokina can rarely be trusted to play his best tennis all the way through a tournament, but that doesn't mean he won't win this match.

So, just one bet for me, which is a one point lay of Rublev to win 2-0 at around 1.8810/11.